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The Campbell’s Company forecasts a significant 12-18% decline in adjusted earnings per share for fiscal year 2026, primarily due to the impact of steel, aluminum, and IEEPA tariffs on its cost of products sold. The company is implementing mitigation strategies, but analysts remain divided on the outlook. Campbell Soup Projects 2026 Earnings Reduction Amid Tariff Headwinds The Campbell’s Company (NYSE: CPB) announced a projected decline in its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for fiscal year 2026, forecasting a significant reduction of 12% to 18%. This downturn is primarily attributed to increased costs stemming from Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The Event in Detail The company’s fiscal 2026 guidance indicates that gross tariffs are expected to account for approximately 4% of the cost of products sold. Of this, roughly 60% originates from the Section 232 steel and aluminum duties, which directly impact the cost of manufacturing soup cans. The remaining portion is largely due to global IEEPA tariffs, affecting imports such as Rao’s sauces from Italy. This tariff burden is a key factor in the anticipated two-thirds reduction of adjusted EPS for the upcoming fiscal year. In addition to the EPS forecast, Campbell’s projects full-year reported net sales for fiscal 2026 to be down 2% to flat, while adjusted EBIT is expected to decline between 9% and 13%. Analysis of Market Reaction Despite a resilient performance in fiscal 2025, where Campbell’s reported net earnings of $602 million, a 6% increase from the prior year, and net sales rising 6% to $10.25 billion (partially driven by the acquisition of Sovos Brands), the outlook for 2026 presents a stark contrast. The company faces a substantial challenge in mitigating the ongoing tariff impacts. Campbell’s has outlined a strategy to mitigate approximately 60% of the projected tariff impact. This includes a multi-pronged approach involving inventory management, collaboration with suppliers, exploring alternative sourcing opportunities, and enhancing productivity. The company also intends to implement "surgical and responsible pricing actions" where deemed absolutely necessary. Furthermore, Campbell’s has increased its long-term cost savings target from $250 million to $375 million by fiscal year 2028, with $145 million already realized in fiscal 2025. To support top-line growth and brand awareness, marketing investment is projected to increase to 9% to 10% of net sales. However, the remaining 40% of the tariff impact, combined with rising raw material costs, is expected to weigh heavily on margins. The necessity to import key raw materials like steel and aluminum due to insufficient domestic supply, coupled with a 50% tariff on such imports, underscores the structural nature of these cost pressures. Broader Context and Implications The challenges faced by Campbell’s highlight a broader vulnerability within the Food Sector and Consumer Staples Sector to global trade policies and tariffs. These external factors can significantly influence profitability and investor confidence. From a valuation perspective, Campbell’s stock (CPB) was trading at $33.07 as of September 4, 2025, below its estimated fair value. Its Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 11x is notably lower than its five-year average of 15x and the broader packaged food sector average of 16x, suggesting a potential market discount reflecting current headwinds. Expert Commentary Analysts remain divided on Campbell’s future trajectory. CFRA has revised its 2026 EPS estimate downwards to $2.47 from $2.99, citing persistent cost pressures. Conversely, others, such as Bernstein SocGen, have raised their price targets to $39, expressing optimism regarding Campbell’s capacity to adapt and execute its mitigation strategies. Looking Ahead The path to recovery for Campbell’s in fiscal 2026 will largely depend on external factors such as shifts in trade policy and the normalization of input costs. The company’s strategic focus on operational excellence, disciplined cost management, and continued investment in its leading brands, particularly within the Meals & Beverages segment, aims to stabilize performance. The Snacks division is also anticipated to show stabilization in the latter half of fiscal 2026. Investors will closely monitor the effectiveness of Campbell’s mitigation efforts and the broader evolution of global trade dynamics as key determinants of the company’s financial performance in the coming quarters.
Multiple shelf-stable food companies, including Kraft Heinz, Conagra Brands, and SunOpta, experienced significant stock price movements and varied earnings results following their second-quarter reports, reflecting a divergence in corporate performance and market reactions within the sector. Shelf-Stable Food Sector Navigates Varied Q2 Earnings Landscape U.S. shelf-stable food companies presented a mixed bag of results in their second-quarter earnings reports, leading to notable stock price fluctuations and underscoring varied corporate strategies and market reactions within the sector. While some firms demonstrated resilience and growth, others grappled with persistent challenges, reflecting a nuanced landscape for consumer staples amidst broader economic shifts. The Event in Detail Kraft Heinz (KHC) reported revenues of $6.35 billion, a 1.9% decrease year-over-year. Despite the decline, this figure exceeded analysts’ expectations by 1.2%, with a solid beat on EBITDA and gross margin estimates. However, the stock has experienced a 5.8% decline since reporting. The company also registered substantial non-cash impairment losses of $9.3 billion in the current year, primarily attributed to a sustained decline in its share price and market capitalization. Kraft Heinz further announced plans to split into two public entities by late 2026, aiming to separate its high-growth sauces from slower-moving grocery staples. Conagra Brands (CAG) reported revenues of $2.78 billion, down 4.3% year-over-year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 1.7%. The company also saw a significant miss on EBITDA estimates and issued disappointing full-year EPS guidance. Conagra’s stock has declined by 6.8% since the release of its results, dropping to a 13-year low. This performance highlights ongoing challenges related to a tough consumer environment, inflationary pressures, and supply chain disruptions. In contrast, SunOpta (STKL) delivered a strong performance, with revenues reaching $191.5 million, a significant 12.9% increase year-over-year. This figure surpassed analysts’ expectations by 3.1%. The company also beat EPS estimates and raised its full-year revenue guidance. SunOpta’s stock has responded positively, surging 24.3% since its earnings announcement. Other notable performances include Hershey (HSY), which saw revenues climb 26% year-over-year, outperforming expectations by 3.1%. However, its stock traded sideways post-report. Campbell’s (CPB) revenues were up 1.2% year-over-year, aligning with expectations, and the stock advanced 4% since reporting. Analysis of Market Reaction The market’s divergent reaction to these earnings reports reflects underlying investor sentiment regarding the consumer staples sector. While strong individual performances like SunOpta’s were rewarded, companies like Kraft Heinz and Conagra faced headwinds even with some positive metrics. This suggests that investors are scrutinizing deeper operational challenges and strategic outlooks. For Kraft Heinz and Conagra, stock declines, despite some earnings beats, point to broader concerns such as persistent sales challenges, strategic missteps, and the impact of evolving consumer behaviors. The proposed split by Kraft Heinz, intended to unlock value, has been met with investor skepticism regarding its efficacy in resolving deep-seated issues. Conagra’s struggles are tied to a challenging consumer environment and the company’s inability to fully offset inflationary pressures and supply chain constraints. Conversely, SunOpta’s robust growth, coupled with raised guidance, indicates successful strategic execution and strong demand for its clean-label, plant-based products, aligning with shifting consumer preferences. Broader Context and Implications The varied performance within the shelf-stable food sector occurs against a backdrop of significant macroeconomic dynamics. The broader consumer staples sector has experienced notable underperformance in 2024 and 2025. This trend is largely driven by a prevailing investor preference for higher-growth stocks, particularly those in the artificial intelligence space. The SPDR Consumer Staples Sector ETF (XLP), for instance, has underperformed the broader S&P 500 by 25% year-to-date in 2025. Despite signs of economic fragility, major U.S. stock indices have reached all-time highs. The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.83% on September 5, 2025, reaching a new all-time high of 6,502 points. The index is up 17.8% over the last 12 months and has surged 30.5% since its April lows. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also remain near record levels. This market ascent is partly attributed to the prevailing "soft landing" narrative, where a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September 2025 is widely anticipated. While this environment supports economic expansion, it tends to favor growth-oriented sectors more significantly than defensive sectors like consumer staples. Expert Commentary Leaders within the industry acknowledge the challenges and opportunities. Conagra CEO Sean Connolly noted that "elevated inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty" are expected to persist, highlighting the ongoing pressures on the sector. In contrast, SunOpta CEO Brian W. Kocher emphasized the company's strong position, stating, > "We continue delivering unit volume growth that is among the highest of all publicly traded companies in the food and beverage space." He further affirmed the company's operational discipline: > "We are executing well and doing what we said we would." Looking Ahead The coming months will be critical for the shelf-stable food sector. Investors will closely monitor the Federal Reserve’s actions regarding interest rates, as well as broader inflation data and labor market reports, all of which will influence consumer spending patterns. Companies within the sector will need to continue adapting their strategies, whether through cost management, product innovation, or strategic restructuring, to navigate the evolving economic landscape and competitive pressures. The potential for a continued rotation from defensive to cyclical stocks will also be a key factor to watch, shaping investment flows and individual company valuations.
The P/E ratio of Campbell's Co is 16.6992
Mr. Mark Clouse is the President of Campbell's Co, joining the firm since 2019.
The current price of CPB is $32.87, it has increased 0.04% in the last trading day.
Campbell's Co belongs to Food Products industry and the sector is Consumer Staples
Campbell's Co's current market cap is $9.7B
According to wall street analysts, 22 analysts have made analyst ratings for Campbell's Co, including 2 strong buy, 1 buy, 16 hold, 9 sell, and 2 strong sell
Looks like traders are deciding soup is not "mmm, mmm, good" for their portfolios today, bro. Campbell's (CPB) is dropping due to a cocktail of bearish signals: significant negative options bets, weakening institutional confidence, and a technical picture that’s looking pretty soggy.
The stock isn't moving on a single piece of news today. Instead, it's a continuation of a broader negative trend, with several metrics pointing downwards.
Big Money is Betting Against It: The most telling sign is the recent "unusually large options trading," where put options volume spiked by 57% . For the anons in the back, that means a lot of big players are placing bets that the stock price is going to drop. This is a significant bearish signal.
Weakening Institutional & Analyst Sentiment:
The Technicals are Unappetizing:
Despite a recent earnings beat , the stock has been in a multi-year decline and has lost over 20% of its value this year alone . A single good quarter wasn't enough to change the narrative.
Maybe next time, check the options flow on Edgen Radar before you decide to "buy what you know."