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SpaceX 到底在做的是什么
第一条:直接买 SpaceX
第二条:买 SpaceX 帮你验证过的公司
第三条:卖铲子的、用铲子的
直接买之前你要知道的事
The Money Person Take

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想提前投资 SpaceX？散户其实有 3 种上车方式

Edgen
· May 27 2026
想提前投资 SpaceX？散户其实有 3 种上车方式

作者: Edgen Research | 2026-05-28

「想提前投资 SpaceX？」这几天散户在群里、券商 App、Reddit 上几乎都在问这一句。S-1 招股书 5 月 20 日已经公开,6 月 11 日定价、6 月 12 日以 SPCX 代码挂牌交易,这次募资目标 800 亿美元、估值 1.75–2 万亿美元——按规模算,是历史上最大的 IPO,而且大很多。

所以"我要怎么在它上市之前买到 SpaceX?"完全是个合理的问题。

不过这个问题底下,还有一个更值得花一分钟想清楚的问题。

大多数人其实想要的并不是某一只具体股票,而是想站在 SpaceX 正在拉起的这一整条线的对的一边:可回收火箭变成行业默认配置、Starlink 把卫星宽带做成日常基础设施、太空成为国防、电信和工业软件的下一个底层平台。你可以直接买 SpaceX 的股权去赌这件事,也可以通过今天就能下单的公开市场股票去赌——后者有时候风险更干净,而且不用去抢 IPO 配售这种"抽奖"。

上车的路不止一条。一共有三条,其中只有一条是真的去买这枚火箭本身。

SpaceX 到底在做的是什么

把 IPO 的热度先放一边,SpaceX 这个故事是三层叠在一起的。

可回收火箭已经是默认选项,不再是试验。 Falcon 9 已经飞了超过 400 次,每公斤入轨成本的曲线压得太低,其他发射商要么跟上,要么被挤出市场。

Starlink 在从一个产品变成基础设施。 这张星座网在消费、企业、国防、海事、Direct-to-Cell 这几条线上都在赚钱,而且每多发一批卫星,单位经济模型都会变好一档。过去要靠光缆和基站才能实现的连接,现在直接从轨道上下来。

太空是下一个底层平台。 国防部门、电信运营商、农业、物流、传感器网络——它们的数据和带宽全在卫星上跑,而且供应商名单还在变长。

要站在这三件事的对的一边,有三条路可以走。

第一条:直接买 SpaceX

最直接的一条,也是大多数散户已经在想的那条。

最干净的做法,是在 SpaceX 招股书里点名的五家券商提交 IOI(认购意向书)——这五家是 SpaceX 在 S-1 里明确写明的散户配售渠道:Charles Schwab、Fidelity、Robinhood、SoFi,以及 E-Trade by Morgan Stanley。如果你的 IOI 被分到货,你拿的是和大型机构同一个 IPO 价格。能不能配到不保证,需求肯定也很挤,但以这种规模的 IPO 来说,散户能拿到这种通道其实很少见。

第二条是 Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA),当前 $38.76。SpaceX 在这只基金里大约占 10%,剩下是一篮子已上市的太空相关公司。没有 NAV 溢价,你看到的就是你付的——但要把它当成一个"附带 SpaceX 调味"的太空篮子,而不是 SpaceX 的纯多头。

第三条是 Destiny Tech100 (DXYZ),当前 $47.62,SpaceX 是它的第一大持仓,占 16.2%。问题在价格:DXYZ 现在的交易价格是其报告 NAV 的 1.94 倍。等于你为底层的非上市持仓付了接近两倍的钱,而这种溢价在它定价时所等待的那个催化剂真的来了之后,通常会快速收敛回来。

第二条:买 SpaceX 帮你验证过的公司

SpaceX 用 2 万亿美元 IPO,做的事情不只是给自己定价。它等于在告诉整个市场:太空经济现在已经是一个真正的机构级类别——这件事会把一批本来就守在公开市场、等这一天的公司一起抬上去。

Rocket Lab (RKLB) 是这条赛道里最有说服力的"第二家发射商"。Electron 今天已经在做小型载荷,Neutron 则是冲着 SpaceX 主导的中重型市场去的。云厂商和各国政府不想把所有发射都押在一家身上,这几年已经把单子往 Rocket Lab 这边挪——SpaceX 一上市,这个逻辑只会更硬。

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) 是 Direct-to-Cell 卫星这条线的对位。AT&T 和 Verizon 之所以投钱给它,就是因为它们不想去租竞争对手星座网的容量。一旦 Starlink 的 Direct-to-Cell 在消费端拿下注意力,ASTS 就是那些"不想被 Elon 卡脖子"的运营商的另一条路。

Iridium (IRDM) 是太空通信里那种不太性感但赚钱的公司。生意成熟、现金流稳,在政府、海事、IoT 这些场景里护城河很深。Starlink 拿走高端消费这一层,Iridium 仍然在底下安静地跑它一直在跑的那条传统骨干网。

这三家你都不需要去抢 IPO 配额,也不用付 2 倍 NAV 的溢价。等 SpaceX 真把 2 万亿美元的 IPO 定下来、整个类别被重估,这三家都会跟着上,而你不需要去赌"抽奖"中签。

第三条:卖铲子的、用铲子的

第三条,大多数散户花在它上面的时间最少,而机构的类别下注其实经常落在这里。规律是熟悉的:每当一家定义品类的公司在高估值上市,它的供应商和下游用户经常也会跟着吃肉——按风险调整后看,有时候吃得更稳。

国防大厂里有太空业务的部分——L3Harris、Northrop Grumman,以及 Lockheed Martin 的太空板块。SpaceX 验证的是商业太空经济,但一直把这条经济线拉着往前走的机构买家,本来就是国防。每一份卫星侦察、加密通信、导弹预警的合同,最后都会落到这几家中的一家。

Starlink 你已经能买到的下游用户——T-Mobile 是消费端最明显的那一个,它和 Starlink 在 Direct-to-Cell 上是正式合作。工业端比如海运公司、需要海上联网的油气作业方、农业数据公司,这些公司的财报里都已经在跑 Starlink 的真实收入贡献,反映在它们自己的毛利里。

供应商和地面基础设施——激光通信、推进系统、地面站、零部件供应商。规模更小、流动性也一般,但只要有人发射火箭,它们就有生意。

这些名字在 6 月 12 日不会像 SPCX 那样在 Reddit 上刷屏。但它们也不会让你付 1.94 倍 NAV 的价。

直接买之前你要知道的事

如果你权衡之后,还是觉得直接买 SpaceX 是你想走的那条路,那带着清醒去就行。

1.75–2 万亿美元的估值,等于把 SpaceX 的未来几乎所有牌都按"打中"来定价了:Starlink 在多条业务线饱和、Starship 把发射节奏跑起来、Direct-to-Cell 拿到有意义的市场份额。这几个里有一个慢一拍,估值就会很快往下回收。

DXYZ 现在 1.94 倍 NAV,是这一笔下注的散户版——你接近付两倍的钱去买它底层那堆非上市持仓,本质是赌 SpaceX 的 IPO 定价会比现在私募市场标的价更高。这事可能发生,也可能不发生。

回头看过去几个超级 IPO,在最热的时候直接上车并不总是最好的交易。买 Amazon IPO 的人赚到了,但同一波里 UPS、FedEx 和支付网络也赚到了,而且波动只有它的一小段。Tesla 上市那天上车的人赚得很漂亮,Panasonic 和充电基础设施这些名字也赚到了。SpaceX 之后可能复制其中任何一种走法——两种都值得放在你脑子里。

The Money Person Take

如果这篇文章有一件事值得带走,那就是把问题换一下。少问一句「SpaceX 怎么买」,多问一句「6/13 那一天,我想站在 SpaceX 验证过的这条价值链上的哪一段」。

想要那个头条名字、也愿意付 IPO 溢价:去那五家券商递 IOI,或者认了 DXYZ 的溢价税。

想要被验证的曝险、又不想付那个溢价:照你自己对哪条主线会先变硬的判断,去配 RKLB、ASTS 和 IRDM。

想要风险回报最稳、不介意答案没那么性感的:买有太空业务的国防主承包商,买 Starlink 的下游用户。两边都吃得到,而且不需要 IPO 走得完美才赚得到钱。

三条路都是真正在投资 SpaceX。只有一条,需要你真的下单买 SpaceX。

Edgen Research 面向散户投资者提供机构级别的分析。本文不构成投资建议。SpaceX 在 2026 年 6 月 12 日之前仍为非上市公司;上市前的估值均为预估,不构成承诺。各项功能与可得性可能随时变动。购买任何 ETF 前,请通过发行人官方 fact sheet 核实最新持仓。

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投资这事，终于不用一个人了

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