UniCredit targets Q4 Commerzbank takeover as stake hits 48%

UniCredit now controls 48 percent of Commerzbank after its low-ball offer and open-market purchases, and Chief Executive Officer Andrea Orcel said a full acquisition could come as soon as the fourth quarter.

"That would mark the moment when we go in," Orcel told CNBC's Carolin Roth, adding that the Italian lender would not wait for Commerzbank's annual general meeting in May 2027. "Potentially" in the fourth quarter, "maybe later," he said.

UniCredit posted better-than-expected second-quarter net profit of €2.9 billion, beating the €2.8 billion average analyst estimate, and raised its 2026 income guidance to well above €11 billion. The bank said its Commerzbank investment would return 15 percent, exceeding the expected return from the €4.75 billion share buyback it has now canceled.

The deal would create one of Europe's largest banking groups by assets, combining UniCredit's Italian and Eastern European operations with Commerzbank's German corporate lending franchise. The outcome now hinges on a regulatory verdict that will determine whether the combined entity moves forward or Commerzbank charts an independent course.

The Regulatory Pivot

UniCredit's official takeover offer, which expired July 3, drew just 17.6 percent of Commerzbank shares. Among independent institutional and retail investors, acceptance stood at under 2 percent. The bulk of UniCredit's 48 percent position came from earlier open-market purchases and derivative positions rather than the tender process itself.

Jefferies Financial Group pushed its voting rights past the 10 percent threshold on July 20, confirming a 10.02 percent stake through share purchases and financial instruments. The move signals that institutional investors continue to bet on a resolution to the takeover saga.

Commerzbank shares closed at €37.80 on July 22, up 2.72 percent, roughly 3.5 percent below the 52-week high of €39.18 reached July 14. The stock trades 8.63 percent above its 200-day moving average of €34.66, with a relative strength index of 51.3 — neutral territory that leaves room for further upside.

Commerzbank Fights Back

Commerzbank's management raised its 2026 net profit target to at least €3.4 billion, up from a previous forecast of more than €3.2 billion. For the 2026-2028 period, the bank intends to distribute nearly 100 percent of profit after AT1 coupon deductions through dividends and share buybacks — a move that could make the stock harder to acquire at a discount.

Analyst views diverge ahead of Commerzbank's second-quarter results due Aug. 6. RBC Capital Markets' Anke Reingen rates the stock Outperform with a €43 price target. Deutsche Bank's Benjamin Goy backs a Buy call at €42, citing expected earnings growth and a new buyback program. JPMorgan's Kian Abouhossein maintains a Neutral stance at €37, pointing to stable profit forecasts for 2026-2028.

The spread of targets from €37 to €43 reflects the uncertainty that only regulators can resolve. If the deal proceeds, UniCredit would gain a dominant position in German corporate banking. If blocked, Commerzbank's independent strategy — built on record profitability and full profit distribution — gives shareholders a credible alternative.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.