Key Takeaways:
SpaceX shares fell 6% to $131.86 on Thursday, slipping below the $135 IPO price for the first time since the June debut as 319 million shares came off lockup.
"SpaceX is a potential generational compounder," Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said, setting a 12-month price target of $300 that implies 127% upside from Thursday's level.
The tranche, equal to 49.9% of the 638.9 million shares sold in June's IPO, erased roughly $103 billion from the company's market value. It represents 2.4% of SpaceX's 13.18 billion total shares, with founder Elon Musk's 6.42 billion shares locked until June 2027. Turnover reached 83.2 million shares by early afternoon, trailing the 10-day daily average of 143.7 million.
The decline contrasts with the August 6 unlock of 911.5 million shares, which lifted the stock 6.1% as buyers absorbed the supply. Two larger tranches remain ahead: about 1.3 billion shares tied to third-quarter earnings in early November and the 180-day lockup expiry in December, both dwarfing Thursday's release.
Jonas's bullish call sits at the top of a wide analyst range. DZ Bank's Markus Leistner initiated coverage Thursday with a Sell rating and a $100 target, warning of "crash risk in the valuation orbit." UBS's John Hodulik rates the stock Buy with a $210 target, while Piper Sandler's Alexander Potter holds a Neutral stance at $140. A consensus of 35 analysts rates SpaceX a Buy with an average target of $222.73, a 59.5% premium to the current price.
The valuation debate rests on growth. Second-quarter revenue rose 92% to $7.81 billion, with the AI segment jumping 247.5% to $2.56 billion. The company posted a net loss of $541 million, or nine cents a share, narrower than the 21-cent loss analysts expected. Capital spending reached $18.4 billion, about 2.4 times quarterly revenue, as SpaceX directed $15.8 billion into AI infrastructure.
Rocket Lab fell 4% to $72.67 in sympathy, with no company-specific catalyst, while the Procure Space ETF slipped 2% to $45.54, still up 17% year to date.
The move below the IPO reference gives sellers a level to trade against as more supply becomes eligible. Investors will watch whether the stock stabilizes above $135 in coming sessions, with the next 319 million-share tranche due September 9 and the larger November release ahead.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
