Katz: IDF to stay in Lebanon until 100% Hezbollah disarmament

Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is fully disarmed, Defense Minister Israel Katz said on July 9.

Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz said the military will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms completely, signaling an indefinite occupation as the IDF has already leveled 100% of villages in the western and central sectors.

"The IDF will not withdraw from any point in southern Lebanon until the Lebanese Armed Forces demonstrates it can and will disarm Hezbollah," Katz said during a security assessment on July 9, according to a statement from his office.

The IDF has destroyed about 100% of buildings in the western and central sectors of southern Lebanon and 73% in the eastern sector, according to military data. Northern Command officers doubt the LAF will carry out its commitments under the framework signed by Jerusalem and Beirut, given that a high percentage of its soldiers are Shiite and may hold Hezbollah sympathies, Walla reported. Under the existing understandings, the LAF is supposed to remove explosives, collect weapons and military equipment, and destroy bunkers and tunnels built by Hezbollah over about 20 years.

The prolonged deployment risks a broader regional escalation. Brent crude could see supply premiums as the Israel-Hezbollah front remains active alongside US strikes on Iran, while safe-haven gold and the dollar may strengthen on heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The last time Israel maintained a prolonged ground presence in southern Lebanon — from 1982 to 2000 — the occupation ended only after sustained Hezbollah guerrilla attacks made the position untenable, a precedent that underscores the risks of the current strategy.

LAF credibility in question

IDF Northern Command officials said the LAF previously promised American and European officials it would clear villages on the first line to the Israeli border of weapons and terrorists. In practice, commanders did not act because they feared Hezbollah's response, one officer said, calling the earlier commitments a lie. The LAF is now expected to provide a date in the coming weeks for when it will begin its pilot program to search and clear the area.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the security zone last week alongside Defense Minister Katz, IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Maj.-Gen. Tamir Yadai, and Northern Command Chief Maj.-Gen. Rafi Milo, receiving briefings from brigade commanders serving in the area.

Broader regional risks

The standoff in southern Lebanon coincides with escalating US-Iran tensions. The US launched a second night of strikes against Iran, and Iran warned the US and Israel against attacks ahead of funeral processions for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The convergence of these flashpoints threatens to push crude oil prices higher, with the Middle East accounting for about 30% of global supply. Gold has historically gained during periods of elevated geopolitical risk, rising an average of 8% during major Middle East conflicts over the past two decades.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.