Iran's sixth strike wave jolts oil 4% as Bitcoin holds range

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck US aircraft at Jordan's Azraq Air Base for the sixth time in Operation Nasr 2, sending oil prices up 4% while Bitcoin remained locked in a narrow range.

Iran's IRGC launched its sixth wave of Operation Nasr 2 against US aircraft at Jordan's Azraq Air Base on July 15, pushing Brent crude above $84 a barrel as Bitcoin held a $62,600-to-$64,700 range.

"The oil move reflects a market pricing in a sustained disruption to Middle East supply routes, not just a one-off strike," said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. "But after a strong rally, traders are adopting a wait-and-watch approach."

Brent crude rose nearly 4% to $84.95 a barrel before settling back, while WTI traded at $79.45. The Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 21% of global oil trade — saw vessel traffic halve to seven crossings on July 15 from 13 the prior day, with no very large crude carriers or LNG tankers transiting, Kpler data showed. Bitcoin oscillated between $62,600 and $64,700, with the range reflecting uncertainty rather than a clear directional bias.

The escalation threatens to embed a sustained risk premium across energy and risk assets. A prolonged oil price increase would feed directly into inflation expectations, pressuring central banks to keep rates elevated — a historical headwind for equities and crypto. Iran's military said the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US meets its demands, while shipping companies are already refusing US-guided transit schemes over crew safety concerns.

The IRGC said the July 15 operation targeted aircraft shelters housing F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets plus facilities supporting MQ-9 Reaper drones at Azraq Air Base in northeastern Jordan, a critical hub for US air operations. Jordanian air defense intercepted most incoming missiles, with authorities reporting no casualties or structural damage. The strike marked the sixth wave of what Iran has branded Operation Nasr 2, a campaign that has intensified through June and July.

Iran widens the theater

Iran expanded its targeting beyond Jordan on July 16, claiming strikes on US radar systems, Patriot air defense batteries, and fuel storage at Kuwait's Ali Al Salem Air Base and Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base as part of the tenth wave of the operation. Bahrain's military said it intercepted several Iranian strikes, while Kuwait reported engaging hostile drones. Jordan's armed forces said they downed eight Iranian missiles, with debris secured by engineering teams.

The widening arc of attacks has disrupted energy infrastructure beyond direct strike damage. Iraq suspended crude oil loading at all terminals after a drone struck a tanker at the Basra terminal, though it caused no fire or damage. India ordered shipowners not to deploy its seafarers on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz after two Indian crew members were killed in attacks over the preceding three days.

Sanctions, crypto, and the inflation channel

Iran has historically used cryptocurrency to move value outside the reach of US financial sanctions, a dynamic that adds a crypto-specific dimension to the conflict. US-based exchanges face heightened pressure to demonstrate sanctions compliance, which can affect liquidity and onboarding for certain asset types. Bitcoin's rangebound trading — stuck between $62,600 and $64,700 — suggests the market is pricing in uncertainty rather than a clear risk-on or risk-off signal.

The last time a comparable escalation disrupted Hormuz traffic, in 2019 after attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities, oil spiked 15% in a single session before retreating over subsequent weeks as strategic reserves were released. The current episode lacks a similar release valve: the US reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports on July 14, and Iran responded by closing the strait entirely. With Brent already up 4% and vessel traffic halved, the risk of a sustained supply shock is higher than in any episode since the 2019 attacks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.