Key Takeaways:
Rahm Emanuel, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, delivered a stinging rebuke of Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Wednesday, calling for an end to unconditional US support for Israel as polling shows Democratic sympathy for the country has collapsed to 17%.
Rahm Emanuel called for ending the US taxpayer subsidy of Israel's defense budget and sanctioning companies that support West Bank settlements, telling an audience at Tel Aviv University that the US-Israel relationship is "at a crossroads" and "cannot stand or survive as it has been."
"For too long, American policy toward Israel operated under the assumption that the best thing Washington could do for Jerusalem was to blindly and silently stand behind your government, without conditions, without demands, and without consequences when we disagreed," Emanuel said. "That has been our mistake. Unconditional support has produced a prime minister who has presumed that his strategic interests would incur no cost if he ignored America's concerns."
The speech comes as Gallup polling shows Democratic sympathy for Israelis fell to 17% this year from 40% in 2022, while sympathy for Palestinians rose to 65% from 38%. A separate AP-NORC survey found 58% of Democrats say the US is too supportive of Israel, up from 45% in January 2024, and roughly half believe Israel has committed genocide in Gaza — an accusation Emanuel declined to endorse when pressed, saying the term should not be "politicized."
Emanuel's proposals — including sanctions on settler extremists who attack Palestinian civilians, penalties on companies and banks supporting settlements considered illegal by most of the international community, and ending Israel's preferential terms for buying American arms — represent a frontal challenge to Netanyahu as he faces an October reelection bid. The former Obama chief of staff is widely viewed as a likely contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, and his speech signals how the party's center has shifted on an issue that has roiled Democratic congressional primaries this year.
The Political Calculus
Emanuel, who is Jewish and whose father was born in Jerusalem, made a point of avoiding Israeli elected officials during his visit, saying he did not want to interfere with the country's elections. He met instead with President Isaac Herzog, visited Tel Aviv's Ichilov Hospital and toured the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial. The approach mirrors a strategy of addressing the Israel question head-on — a calculation that Jewish Democrats eyeing national campaigns must navigate a party base that has grown increasingly hostile to the Jewish state.
The shift is generational. Among voters under 45, support for Israel has eroded sharply since the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks that killed nearly 1,200 people and triggered a military campaign that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities. The war has become a dividing line in Democratic primaries, with a trio of anti-Israel congressional candidates sweeping recent contests in New York.
Emanuel's relationship with Netanyahu dates back nearly two decades. In a 2009 Oval Office confrontation over West Bank housing, Emanuel told the prime minister his policies would isolate Israel — a warning Netanyahu reportedly dismissed by calling Emanuel a "self-hating Jew." The exchange foreshadowed the current rupture: Netanyahu has forged close ties with President Donald Trump and the Republican Party while Democratic support has withered.
A 23-State Solution
Emanuel called the traditional two-state solution "discredited" and proposed instead a "23-state solution" that would include Israel, a reformed Palestinian Authority and the 21 other members of the Arab League. "The 21 Arab nations that have exploited Palestinian rights as a slogan for decades now need to roll up their sleeves and stand up a governing authority capable of accepting the historic Jewish connection to this land," he said.
The proposal reflects a broader recognition that the political ground has shifted. Emanuel noted that "support for Israel is plummeting around the world," citing exclusion of Israeli scientists from international research networks and the shuttering of Israeli artists from exhibits and conferences. "You've lost Europe," he said.
The stakes extend beyond diplomacy. With 48% of voters in a late June Quinnipiac poll saying the US is too supportive of Israel — a record high since the question was first asked in 2017 — the issue is likely to feature prominently in the 2028 Democratic primary. Emanuel, along with Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, both Jewish Democrats also considering presidential bids, will need to articulate a vision for the US-Israel relationship that satisfies a party base that has moved decisively against the status quo.
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