Citi keeps Geely Auto Buy as export target jumps to 920,000

Citi maintained its Buy rating on Geely Auto (00175.HK) with a HKD30 target price after the automaker raised its 2026 export target to 920,000 vehicles.

Management delivered positive messages during the earnings conference, sharply raising the export sales target from 640,000 vehicles to 920,000 vehicles while targeting the 1 million vehicle milestone, Citi said in a research report.

The long-term goal is for overseas sales to account for two-thirds of total sales. The group plans to build five core markets — ASEAN, pan-Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America and Africa, and the Middle East and Asia-Pacific — with long-term scales reaching 600,000, 500,000, 400,000, 300,000 and 200,000 vehicles respectively.

The new target represents growth of nearly 120 percent from the 420,097 vehicles exported in 2025. Exports surged 158 percent in the first half to 474,228 vehicles, while domestic sales fell 22.6 percent, making overseas markets the company's sole growth engine.

Geely Auto exported 474,228 vehicles in the first half, with monthly exports topping 100,000 vehicles for the first time in June. Exports reached a record 106,663 vehicles in July, up 202 percent year-on-year, while cumulative exports in the first seven months reached 580,891 vehicles, up 164.8 percent.

New energy vehicles drove the growth. Geely Auto exported 62,604 NEVs in July, up 616 percent year-on-year and accounting for 59 percent of total exports.

The domestic market remained under pressure. China sales fell 22.6 percent in the first half to 948,730 vehicles and declined 29.1 percent year-on-year in July. Total sales in the first seven months were 1,673,119 vehicles, up just 1.6 percent, equivalent to 48 percent of the full-year target of 3,450,000 vehicles.

Geely Auto still trails BYD (HKEX: 1211) overseas. BYD sold more than 792,256 NEVs overseas in the first half, nearly twice Geely Auto's export volume, and raised its 2026 export target in March to 1,500,000 vehicles from 1,300,000.

The export target increase comes as the automaker undergoes its most significant leadership reshuffle since founding. Founder Eric Li steps down as chairman effective August 18, with Andy An taking over and leading the "One Geely" strategy. An said in January that Geely Holding aims for global sales of 6,500,000 vehicles by 2030, with markets outside China contributing more than one-third.

Separately, BofA Securities raised its earnings forecasts for Geely Auto over the next two years and slightly lifted its target price to HKD27.6.

The raised export target shows management expects overseas demand to accelerate as the domestic market contracts. Investors will watch monthly export data and the rollout of the five core markets for confirmation of the 1 million-vehicle aspiration.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.