Bitcoin enters September holding near $78,600 after its strongest August since 2017, with Friday's jobs report set to decide whether the seasonal run survives a hawkish Fed repricing.
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Bitcoin steadies near $78,600 after best August since 2017
Bitcoin traded near $78,613 on Tuesday, up 1.49 percent in 24 hours, after posting its strongest August since 2017.
"Bitcoin's recent advance has relied more on spot demand than excessive leverage," analysts at CryptoNews.net said, a structure that could help it absorb selling pressure as renewed Federal Reserve hawkishness revived September rate-hike expectations.
The macro pressure traces to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole on Aug. 28, which pushed CME FedWatch odds of a September quarter-point hike to 60.4 percent from about 56 percent on Friday. Oil's surge past $90 a barrel after U.S. strikes on Iran's Larak Island added to the inflation calculus, with Deutsche Bank forecasting 50 basis points of total hikes this year. The repricing triggered $438 million in long liquidations across crypto markets in 24 hours through Aug. 31, including $95.56 million in Bitcoin and $138 million in Ethereum.
Friday's jobs report is the next binary event. A hot print would cement the September hike and pressure Bitcoin toward the $75,000 support, while a soft number could fuel a break above the $80,000 resistance that has capped the rally. Bitcoin's BLAKE2b hard fork, scheduled for Tuesday, and the Sept. 15 CLARITY Act vote add technical and regulatory layers to the setup.
ETF flows turn after record August
August was a record month for Bitcoin ETF inflows, topping $3 billion, before the streak snapped on Aug. 28 when U.S. spot funds recorded net outflows of $201.8 million — the first after nine consecutive days of inflows. Ethereum ETFs extended their run, with BlackRock's ETH fund alone attracting $1.02 billion, a divergence that shows institutional appetite shifting toward regulated Ethereum products as Bitcoin faces macro headwinds.
Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, resumed accumulation with a $370 million purchase of 4,603 BTC between Aug. 24 and Aug. 30, its first buy since June 22, per an SEC filing. The company now holds 845,050 BTC, with a $1.6 billion cash reserve available for further acquisitions.
Jobs report sets the next leg
The Friday release will determine whether Bitcoin's seasonal momentum extends. Prediction markets on Myriad put a 94 percent chance Bitcoin stays above $74,000 by Sept. 6, but only a 37 percent chance it clears $80,000. A soft jobs number would weaken the case for a September hike and could push Bitcoin through resistance, while a strong print would reinforce the hawkish path and test the $75,000 floor.
The setup is complicated by roughly $1.5 billion in token unlocks due in the first week of September, including 13.53 million Sui tokens, which adds supply-side pressure across crypto markets. Bitcoin's dominance, at 57.69 percent, has held steady as altcoins bear the brunt of the deleveraging.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin defies oil price spike and rising Fed hike bets after best August since 2017[2] Bitcoin Faces Crucial September Amid Fed Hawkishness and Hard Fork Uncertainty[3] BTC price on September 6, 4PM UTC[4] US-Iran Hormuz Conflict Drives Oil Past $90: Global Markets Plunge, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rekindled[5] Australian Dollar Holds Steady as Oil Spike and Fed Hawkish Bets Weigh on Traders
