Bitcoin nears $64,000 as CLARITY Act odds slide to 27%

Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $63,680 on Monday after recovering from a $62,216 intraday low, as Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law slid to 27%.

Coinglass data shows nearly $82 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across exchanges over 24 hours, with short positions accounting for about $50 million of the total. The recovery lifted bitcoin's market capitalization to roughly $1.28 trillion, pushing the total crypto market cap to $2.28 trillion.

The initial slide followed Strategy completing its third bitcoin sale of 2026, offloading 1,638 BTC between July 27 and Aug. 2 to fund preferred stock dividend payments and STRC share repurchases. The company retains 842,138 BTC. Prices then turned higher after reports that the Trump administration had resumed talks with Iran, with bitcoin jumping from $62,404 at around 8:10 a.m. EST to an intraday peak of $63,920 in under three hours.

The Senate's Monday floor schedule omitted the CLARITY Act, leaving five days before the Aug. 7 recess for the market-structure bill to clear the 60-vote filibuster threshold. Polymarket traders responded by cutting passage odds more than 10 percentage points over the past week, from 38% last Monday to 27%.

Senate deadlock caps upside

The legislative bottleneck has become the primary constraint on bitcoin's advance. The bill, which passed the House 294-134 in July 2025 and cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 in May, still faces disputes over Section 10404 ethics safeguards and banking trade group objections to stablecoin yield provisions. A Tillis-Gallego compromise, reportedly including state attorney general enforcement rights, has not been made public.

Industry pressure has done little to move the arithmetic. BlackRock has publicly endorsed the bill, while Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong and Block's Jack Dorsey have urged passage, backed by roughly $1.4 billion in holdings-linked lobbying. The American Bankers Association has softened its opposition, conceding "a lot of good in the bill."

Recess deadline narrows window

Unless Senate Republicans offer substantial concessions on conflict-of-interest rules for executive officials, the bill will fall short of the 60 votes required to overcome a filibuster before the recess. If shelved until the fall, its chances deteriorate further as midterm campaigning consumes the legislative calendar and forces reintroduction in a post-election Congress.

For bitcoin, the CLARITY Act represents the clearest regulatory catalyst on the horizon. Without floor action, analysts expect the cryptocurrency to remain range-bound, with support near $62,200 and resistance at $64,000. Ether, the second-largest token, traded in line with bitcoin's modest gains, while the broader market held steady as traders await the next legislative signal.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.