Products
Trading Strategies
Markets
© 2025 Edgen Powered by
Ask AI About M
No Data Yet
Market Overview: Slower Growth Anticipated for Online Holiday Sales Salesforce projects U.S. online spending between November 1 and December 31, 2025, to increase by 2.1%, reaching $288 billion. This marks a notable deceleration from the 4% growth observed during the same period last year, which totaled $282 billion. The forecast aligns with broader industry expectations from consulting firms such as Deloitte and PwC, indicating a more subdued holiday shopping season compared to previous years. Consumer Behavior Shifts Amid Economic Headwinds The anticipated slowdown in growth is primarily attributed to evolving consumer behavior driven by rising living costs and persistent economic uncertainty. Shoppers are expected to become increasingly price-conscious, prioritizing essential purchases and actively seeking deeper discounts across product categories. This shift implies a reduction in discretionary spending. Retailers are consequently expected to adopt more cautious promotional strategies, with a slight dip forecast in the number of orders utilizing promotional codes, as brands contend with higher supply chain costs. During Cyber Week, the five-day period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, average discount rates in the U.S. are projected to reach 29%, with the most significant deals anticipated in general apparel, health & beauty, and home furnishing categories. Retailer Responses and Mixed Forecasts Major retailers have presented a mixed outlook for the crucial holiday season. While Walmart (WMT) and Macy's (M) have raised their annual forecasts, signaling optimism in their specific segments, toymaker Mattel (MAT) has cut its outlook. Target (TGT), another significant player, has maintained its annual expectations, reflecting a cautious stance. Following the release of this forecast, Salesforce (CRM) experienced a 1.66% decline in early trading, positioning it as the biggest loser among Dow stocks. This varied performance underscores the divergent impacts of the current economic environment on different retail sub-sectors and individual companies. The Role of Artificial Intelligence in E-commerce A significant trend highlighted in the forecast is the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in driving online sales. Salesforce estimates that AI-powered recommendations and agent-assisted shopping will contribute $51 billion to U.S. online sales, accounting for 18% of the total projected revenue. This indicates a strategic shift towards leveraging technology to personalize customer experiences and streamline purchasing decisions, potentially mitigating some of the challenges posed by tighter consumer budgets and increased price sensitivity. Broader Implications for the Retail Sector The forecast suggests a challenging holiday season for many retailers, potentially leading to lower-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings for those unable to adapt to shifting consumer demands. The emphasis on essential goods and discount-seeking behavior could benefit discount retailers while pressuring luxury or discretionary spending-focused segments. The broader implication points to continued economic headwinds affecting consumer confidence, which could negatively impact overall market sentiment, particularly for the Retail Sector and E-commerce Sector stocks, including large players like Amazon (AMZN). Caila Schwartz, Director of Strategy and Consumer Insights at Salesforce, expressed concerns regarding the potential impact of import fees on e-commerce, suggesting: > "One of the things that we are ... potentially concerned about is if more consumers get more surprises from import fees than they do now from carriers, that could potentially have an impact on e-commerce." Analyst Commentary and Forward Outlook The consensus among analysts and consulting firms like Deloitte and PwC is that consumers will prioritize value and essentials, making the holiday season a "balancing act" for retailers. Future monitoring will focus on actual sales figures against these subdued forecasts, the efficacy of AI-driven sales strategies, and any shifts in consumer confidence as economic indicators evolve. The cautious promotional strategies by retailers, coupled with the potential impact of supply chain costs and import fees, will be critical factors determining profitability in the coming months. The ability of companies to optimize inventory and adapt to price sensitivity will likely differentiate performance within the sector.
Macy's reported second-quarter 2025 net sales of $4.8 billion, surpassing analyst estimates, and subsequently raised its full-year guidance for both net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share. This performance, despite a year-over-year sales decline, reflects the retailer's strategic initiatives and has garnered a cautiously bullish market response. Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) reported net sales of $4.8 billion for the second quarter of 2025, exceeding both company and analyst expectations. This performance, coupled with an upward revision of its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS), has led to a positive reaction in the market, signaling investor confidence in the retailer's strategic direction. Despite a 2.5% decrease in net sales year-over-year, largely attributed to planned store closures, comparable sales demonstrated growth, with an increase of 0.8% on an owned basis and 1.9% on an owned-plus-licensed-plus-marketplace (O+L+M) basis. Second Quarter Financial Highlights For the second quarter, Macy's delivered adjusted diluted EPS of $0.41, significantly surpassing the company's own guidance and analyst forecasts. This contrasts with a GAAP diluted EPS of $0.31. Net income for the quarter stood at $87 million, a decrease from $150 million in the second quarter of 2024, partly due to proactive markdowns and ongoing tariff impacts. Adjusted net income was $113 million, down from $149 million in the prior year. The company's luxury segments, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, continued to exhibit robust growth. Bloomingdale's posted its fourth consecutive quarter of growth with comparable sales up 3.6% on an owned basis and 5.7% on an O+L+M basis. Bluemercury recorded its 18th consecutive quarter of gains, with comparable sales rising by 1.2%. Merchandise inventories decreased by 0.8% year-over-year, indicating effective inventory management. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the quarter was $393 million, representing 7.9% of total revenue. Market Reaction and Strategic Context The market responded favorably to Macy's Q2 results, with the stock experiencing a notable increase in pre-market trading following the announcement. This positive movement for M underscores investor optimism stemming from the better-than-expected earnings and the raised full-year outlook, even as the broader Department Store Retailers segment faces ongoing challenges. The company's "Bold New Chapter" strategy appears to be yielding tangible results. Initiatives such as the "Reimagine 125" locations, which focus on enhanced staffing, visual merchandising, and exclusive product offerings, achieved comparable sales growth of 1.1% on an owned basis and 1.4% on an owned-plus-licensed basis, outperforming the broader Macy's nameplate. This strategy also involves optimizing the store portfolio, with plans to close 66 underperforming stores in 2025 and a total of 150 by 2026, reallocating resources to 350 "go-forward" locations. Broader Implications and Balance Sheet Strength The gross margin rate for the quarter declined by 80 basis points to 39.7%, primarily due to strategic markdowns aimed at managing inventory levels and the impact of goods purchased at previously higher tariff rates. The company anticipates that tariffs will continue to affect gross margins, projecting a reduction of 40 to 60 basis points for the full fiscal year 2025, which could translate to an estimated $0.25 to $0.40 impact on EPS. Macy's concluded the second quarter with a strong financial position, reporting cash and cash equivalents of $829 million and $2.0 billion in available borrowing capacity. The company also strengthened its balance sheet by reducing long-term debt by approximately $340 million through recent financing transactions. Furthermore, Macy's returned $100 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the quarter. Leadership Commentary Tony Spring, chairman and chief executive officer of Macy's, Inc., highlighted the operational success: > "Our teams achieved better than expected top- and bottom-line results during the second quarter, driven by our strongest comparable sales growth in 12 quarters, reflecting the strong performance in Macy's Reimagine 125 locations, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury." Outlook Looking ahead, Macy's has raised its full-year 2025 net sales guidance to a range of $21.15 billion to $21.45 billion. The adjusted diluted EPS projection for the full fiscal year has also been increased to a range of $1.70 to $2.05. The company expects comparable sales to decline between 1.5% and 0.5% for the full year. Investors will continue to monitor the effectiveness of the "Bold New Chapter" initiatives, the impact of tariffs on profitability, and broader consumer spending trends within the Retail Sector as the year progresses.
The P/E ratio of Macy's Inc is 8.0109
Mr. Antony Spring is the Chairman of the Board of Macy's Inc, joining the firm since 2024.
The current price of M is $17.44, it has decreased 0.93% in the last trading day.
Macy's Inc belongs to Retail industry and the sector is Consumer Discretionary
Macy's Inc's current market cap is $4.7B
According to wall street analysts, 15 analysts have made analyst ratings for Macy's Inc, including 1 strong buy, 0 buy, 14 hold, 3 sell, and 1 strong sell
Looks like Macy's (M) is taking a breather after a monster 32% run-up over the last month . The stock is hitting a key resistance level, technicals are screaming "overbought," and a couple of execs just dumped a load of shares. They're taking profits, maybe you should pay attention.
Here’s the breakdown of what’s putting the brakes on Macy's today, anon.
Insider Selling is the Real Alpha: While you were watching the chart, the smart money was cashing out.
Technical Picture: Overbought and Hitting a Wall
Mixed News & Analyst Sentiment
Basically, the recent pump was fun, but now the party seems to be winding down. The combination of insiders cashing out and overbought technicals is a potent cocktail for a pullback.
Don't be someone else's exit liquidity, bro. Maybe track these insider moves on Edgen Radar next time so you're selling with them, not to them.