Structure Therapeutics Nears Key Obesity Drug Trial Results

Structure Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: GPCR), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, is nearing a pivotal moment with the anticipated release of topline data from its Phase 2b clinical trials for aleniglipron (GSBR-1290), an oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist targeting obesity. The results from the ACCESS and ACCESS II studies are expected by year-end 2025 and represent a major catalyst for the company and its valuation in the competitive metabolic disease market.

Detailed Overview of Clinical Programs and Financial Performance

Structure Therapeutics is employing an AI-powered drug discovery platform to develop novel oral small-molecule therapies. Its lead candidate, aleniglipron, is undergoing two Phase 2b studies. The ACCESS study enrolled approximately 220 adult participants with obesity or overweight, evaluating doses of 45 mg, 90 mg, and 120 mg. The ACCESS II study, involving 80-82 participants, is assessing higher doses of 180 mg and 240 mg. Both randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials are designed to measure the percent change in body weight from baseline to week 36, with 12-week Phase 2a results having previously demonstrated a 6.2% placebo-adjusted mean weight loss.

Financially, Structure Therapeutics reported a net loss of $61.7 million for the second quarter of 2025, an increase from $26.0 million in the same period of 2024. This expanded loss is primarily attributable to significant investments in research and development (R&D), which rose to $54.7 million in Q2 2025 from $22.1 million in Q2 2024. Despite increased expenditures, the company maintains a robust financial position, holding $786.5 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments as of June 30, 2025. This capital is projected to fund operations and key clinical milestones through at least 2027, excluding the substantial costs associated with potential Phase 3 registrational studies.

Beyond aleniglipron, the company is expanding its metabolic disease pipeline. It anticipates initiating a Phase 1 study for ACCG-2671, an oral small molecule amylin receptor agonist, by year-end 2025. This strategic move aims to diversify its offerings and potentially complement existing GLP-1 therapies.

Market Reaction and Competitive Landscape

The upcoming Phase 2b data for aleniglipron is widely regarded as a make-or-break event for Structure Therapeutics. Positive results, particularly demonstrating efficacy comparable to or superior to current oral GLP-1 standards with favorable tolerability, could trigger substantial stock appreciation. Conversely, negative or inconclusive data would likely lead to bearish sentiment and a decline in share value.

The market for obesity drugs is intensely competitive, with a projected value exceeding $100 billion by 2030. Industry leaders such as Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly currently dominate with their injectable GLP-1 agonists. Eli Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, demonstrated approximately 11% placebo-adjusted weight loss at 36 weeks in its trials. Analysts suggest aleniglipron would need to achieve greater than 10% weight loss and less than 10% discontinuation rates at 36 weeks to be considered a "best-in-class" oral therapy.

Despite the significant potential, Structure Therapeutics' stock (GPCR) has experienced a considerable decline, falling over 62% in the past year. This performance has been influenced by heightened competitive pressures and lingering investor doubts regarding the efficacy and data integrity of its early-stage compounds.

Broader Context and Industry Implications

Oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonists are positioned to transform the treatment landscape for obesity and related metabolic conditions. The global oral GLP-1 market alone is projected to reach US$12,308.3 million by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.9% from 2024. Structure Therapeutics' strategy focuses on developing oral small molecules to overcome the manufacturing and accessibility limitations often associated with traditional biologic and peptide therapies.

Raymond Stevens, Ph.D., CEO of Structure Therapeutics, has emphasized the company's aim to lead with a scalable pipeline of oral medicines, enhancing patient access. While the long-term potential of oral GLP-1s is significant, J.P. Morgan Research anticipates that the broader obesity market may largely remain a duopoly between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with later entrants securing only a "modest share."

Expert Commentary and Future Outlook

Several financial institutions maintain a positive outlook on Structure Therapeutics ahead of the crucial data readout. JMP Securities reiterated its "Market Outperform" rating with an $87.00 price target, expressing optimism that aleniglipron could outperform Eli Lilly's orforglipron. Similarly, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated an "Overweight" rating with a $65.00 price target, highlighting the significance of the upcoming trial results. Guggenheim maintained a "Buy" rating, albeit with a slightly lowered price target of $90.00, while Clear Street initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and a $61.00 price target. Analyst targets for GPCR currently range from $37.00 to $120.00, suggesting significant upside potential contingent on favorable trial outcomes.

The immediate future for Structure Therapeutics hinges almost entirely on the forthcoming 36-week Phase 2b data for aleniglipron. A successful readout will not only validate its AI-driven discovery platform but also potentially position the company as a strong contender in the lucrative oral obesity market. Investors will also monitor the progression of ACCG-2671 into Phase 1 trials and the company's efforts to secure additional funding, as indicated by a recent $250 million follow-on equity offering and shelf registration, to support its ambitious development pipeline through future costly registrational studies. The company's ability to deliver compelling clinical data will be paramount in overcoming existing competitive pressures and fulfilling analyst expectations for a substantial re-rating of its stock. The next earnings report is scheduled for November 12, 2025.