French Budget Vote Pressures Undervalued Euro

source:

[1] Dollar ebbs as investors gear up for tricky Fed decision - KITCO (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2025- ...)[2] Dollar soft ahead of Fed meet - Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/do ...)[3] Sterling ticks lower as traders brace for busy week - KITCO (https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2025- ...)

Related News

Dec 09 2025, 14:20

U.S. Job Data Reveals Economic Crosscurrents

## Executive Summary Recent labor market reports present a fractured view of the U.S. economy, complicating the outlook for investors and policymakers. Data from **ADP** suggests a minor increase in private payrolls on a weekly basis, but this is overshadowed by a larger monthly decline and a separate, more comprehensive report from **Challenger, Gray & Christmas** indicating a significant acceleration in job cuts. This divergence highlights a choppy hiring environment where corporate caution is mounting, even as financial markets anticipate a dovish pivot from the **Federal Reserve**. ## The Event in Detail The latest data reveals deep crosscurrents within the U.S. labor market. According to **ADP**, private companies added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four weeks through November 22. However, this small gain stands in stark contrast to **ADP's** own month-end report, which stated the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November. Further compounding the negative outlook, a **Challenger, Gray & Christmas** report detailed 71,321 job cuts across all industries in November, a 24% increase compared to the same month last year. This marks the eighth time this year that monthly job cuts have surpassed 2024 levels. The retail sector has been hit particularly hard, with announced job cuts for the year soaring by nearly 140% compared to the same period in 2024. The primary driver cited for these layoffs was corporate restructuring. ## Market Implications Despite the troubling layoff data, financial markets remain fixated on the **Federal Reserve's** upcoming policy decision. U.S. stock index futures edged higher as traders have priced in an 87.4% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. This optimism suggests investors are weighing the potential for monetary easing more heavily than the signs of a cooling labor market. The hospitality industry offers further evidence of a slowing economy. While Thanksgiving holiday travel demand was the second-highest on record, U.S. hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased by 0.3% in the last two weeks of November. More critically, average daily rate (ADR) gains remain below the rate of inflation, continuing to pressure profit margins. Performance is also bifurcated, with **Luxury** chain hotels seeing solid demand growth while **Economy** hotels experience an 8% decline in RevPAR. ## Expert Commentary Industry analysts interpret the data as a sign of increasing corporate reticence amid economic uncertainty. The number of CEO changes has fallen for five consecutive months compared to 2024 levels, leading one expert to comment on the trend. > "This reversal over the last couple of months shows companies have likely lowered their tolerance for change," said Andy Challenger, workplace and labor expert for Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Regarding the high layoff figures, Challenger noted the historical significance: > "Job cuts in November have risen above 70,000 only twice since 2008: in 2022 and in 2008.” ## Broader Context The current labor market reflects a broader economic restructuring. For the year to date, **Artificial Intelligence (AI)** has been cited as a factor in 54,694 layoff plans. Simultaneously, regional economies are experiencing dramatic shifts. In southeast Saskatchewan, for example, the healthcare and social assistance sector saw employment drop by 38% over five months, while the construction industry grew by 20%. Notably, self-employment in that region has surged to become the largest employment category, accounting for 16.9% of all workers. This trend of a shrinking labor pool, where individuals exit the workforce entirely, combined with sectoral shifts, points to a complex and evolving economic landscape that defies simple categorization.

Dec 09 2025, 14:10

Natural Gas Futures Retreat On Mild Weather Outlook

## The Event in Detail United States natural gas futures retreated, correcting some of the previous week's significant gains, in response to updated weather forecasts indicating milder temperatures. The **Nymex** January contract declined by 4.3%, settling at **$5.062 per million British thermal units (MMBtu)**. This move was primarily driven by weather models showing that severe cold would be largely confined to northwestern Canada, with more temperate conditions expected across the U.S. Northeast. The revision eased concerns about potential production disruptions from "freeze-offs" and tempered expectations for near-term heating demand. This trend is mirrored in Europe, where natural gas prices have fallen by over 40% this year, a result of ample Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) supplies and a mild winter that has kept storage levels high. ## Market Implications The immediate effect of falling futures is reduced pressure on energy costs for consumers and industrial users. However, the price of natural gas remains at a three-year high, significantly altering the economics of power generation. The current price point makes coal a more financially attractive fuel for utility providers. According to the **U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)**, the price of natural gas for electric power plants is expected to increase by 37% in 2025. This cost dynamic is creating a "coal comeback," where utilities are incentivized to increase generation from coal-fired plants, potentially delaying planned retirements. ## Expert Commentary Market analysis from experts highlights the pivotal role of weather in short-term price movements. **Gary Cunningham** of **Tradition Energy** noted: > "Weekend model runs now show the most severe cold limited to northwestern Canada and the cold in the U.S. much more tame and confined to the Northeast. The shift warmer should also help limit any production impacts from freeze-offs which had been anticipated in the prior runs." Looking forward, Cunningham anticipates that "spring to see some selling as the weather revisions get modeled into storage projections." On the broader fuel-switching trend, research firm **Wood Mackenzie** has adjusted its long-term outlook. The firm previously projected a 60% decline in U.S. coal-fired power generation by 2032 but has since revised that forecast to a more modest 39% drop, citing the boom in data center investment and higher natural gas prices. ## Broader Context While weather dictates short-term volatility, the structural outlook for U.S. natural gas is shaped by robust demand, particularly from global markets. The **EIA** reports that U.S. working natural gas stocks are 5% above the five-year average, yet prices remain elevated due to record-high LNG exports. The agency forecasts LNG exports to climb by 25% in the current year and an additional 10% in 2026. This sustained export demand, combined with relatively flat domestic production, is expected to provide a floor for prices. The **EIA** projects the **Henry Hub** spot price will average **$4.00/MMBtu** in 2026, representing a 16% increase over 2025 averages. Furthermore, surging electricity demand from power-intensive sectors like artificial intelligence is forcing a reassessment of the grid's capacity needs, potentially extending the operational life of both natural gas and coal power plants.

Dec 09 2025, 13:45

Li Auto Targets 2028 For L4 Autonomous Vehicle

## Executive Summary **Li Auto** has formally announced its strategic objective to launch a vehicle equipped with L4-level autonomous driving technology by 2028. The company also revealed a longer-term ambition to develop an AI-integrated supercar by 2030. This declaration signals a significant acceleration in the company's research and development timeline, positioning it to compete directly with established global automakers in the next generation of intelligent and high-performance vehicles. ## The Event in Detail The announcement confirms that **Li Auto** intends to bring its first L4 autonomous vehicle to market within a three-year timeframe. L4 autonomy, as defined by the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE), represents a stage where the vehicle can operate independently without human intervention under specific conditions, marking a critical milestone in autonomous technology. The company's CEO characterized the achievement of true L4 autonomy as the automotive industry's equivalent of the "iPhone 4 moment," suggesting a market-transforming impact. Further, the vision for an AI-powered supercar by 2030 indicates a dual focus on both mass-market autonomy and high-performance innovation. ## Market Implications This aggressive product roadmap is poised to influence investor sentiment regarding **Li Auto's** market position and future growth potential. By setting a firm target, the company challenges competitors and signals its commitment to securing a leadership role in the autonomous driving sector. The move is particularly notable amid reports of slowing sales in the Chinese auto market, suggesting a strategy focused on technological differentiation to drive growth. This contrasts with broader industry trends where automakers are navigating affordability concerns and sales slumps. ## Broader Context **Li Auto's** ambitions exist within a highly competitive global landscape. **General Motors (GM)** has articulated a vision for vehicles to function as "robot assistants," while **BMW** is rolling out its "Neue Klasse" software-defined vehicle platform. In the high-performance electric vehicle space, **Toyota** is reportedly developing an electric supercar to resurrect its Lexus LFA model. This indicates a sector-wide convergence toward AI integration and electrification. Furthermore, the viability of large-scale autonomous systems is being proven in other industries. For instance, Brazilian mining company **Vale** is significantly expanding its fleet of autonomous off-road trucks in a deal with **Caterpillar**, aiming to reach 90 units by 2028. This industrial application underscores the maturity and practical benefits of autonomous technology in terms of safety and productivity, providing a clear precedent for its adoption in the consumer automotive market.