Consumer Sector Faces Headwinds Amid Rising Costs and Deteriorating Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Sector Under Pressure Amidst Broad Market Gains

While the broader U.S. equity market has demonstrated considerable strength through October 2025, with the S&P 500 advancing 15.31% year-to-date and the Nasdaq 100 outperforming at 18.22%, the consumer sector is experiencing significant headwinds. This divergence highlights a bifurcated market, where transformative advancements in artificial intelligence and green technologies, alongside strong corporate earnings from mega-cap growth companies and an accommodative Federal Reserve policy, have not translated evenly across all segments of the economy. The consumer sector, encompassing both discretionary and staples segments, has exhibited varied and often lagging performance, primarily due to persistent cost pressures, increased tariffs, and a notable decline in consumer confidence.

Detailed Performance Across Consumer Segments

The performance of consumer stocks reveals a nuanced picture. Consumer Staples (XLP), traditionally considered a defensive sector, has underperformed consistently, posting a modest 0.4% rise year-to-date as of October 7, 2025, making it the weakest-performing sector for the year and remaining flat in Q3 2025. This is attributed to a "risk-on" market environment favoring growth, still-elevated interest rates making dividend yields less attractive, and even concerns surrounding the impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs on certain food and beverage consumption patterns.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks have experienced greater volatility. After a challenging first half of 2024, the sector staged a strong rally in late 2024, outperforming the S&P 500. However, it again lagged in the first half of 2025, dropping 4.2% for its worst first-half performance in three years, before climbing 8.9% in Q3 2025. This cyclicality underscores the sector's sensitivity to economic shifts, exemplified by a nearly 22% drop in Tesla (TSLA) stock in early 2025 due to weak electric vehicle sales and intensifying competition, which significantly impacted the sector's overall metrics. Depleted household savings, persistent inflation, and high borrowing costs continue to exert pressure on both consumer segments.

Corporate Earnings and Macroeconomic Headwinds

Several prominent consumer companies are navigating a challenging operating environment marked by increasing input costs and tariff-related expenses, leading to downward revisions in their financial outlooks.

Delta Air Lines Navigates Mixed Demand

Delta Air Lines (DAL) is set to report its Q3 FY2025 earnings on Thursday, October 9, with analyst consensus projecting earnings per share of $1.56 on $15 billion in revenue. This follows a Q2 EPS of $2.06. Despite a strong track record of not missing consensus estimates, DAL's stock has remained stagnant, down 3-4% year-to-date. A "September selloff" was noted, attributed to robust premium and corporate travel demand juxtaposed with softer retail demand, indicating a disparity in consumer spending patterns across income brackets.

Constellation Brands Grapples with Tariff Impact

Constellation Brands (STZ), a major player in alcoholic beverages, has seen its stock decline significantly, down 35% year-to-date and 41% from the previous year, reaching its lowest level since 2020. The company faces a substantial direct tariff impact, estimated at $70 million on its beer business and $20 million on its wine business this year. Tariffs on aluminum alone are projected to reduce earnings by almost $50 million. The U.S. administration's decision to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% in June 2025, with new 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico effective August 1, 2025, has exacerbated these pressures. These increased costs, which cannot be fully offset by price adjustments, prompted Constellation Brands to cut its fiscal 2026 comparable EPS outlook to $11.30-$11.60 from previous guidance of $12.60-$12.90.

"The current tariff environment presents a notable headwind, directly impacting our operational costs and subsequently our profitability projections," stated a company representative, acknowledging the challenging landscape.

McCormick Adjusts to Persistent Cost Pressures

McCormick (MKC), the spice and flavoring giant, reported sustained volume-led growth in its consumer segment during its Q3 2025 earnings call on October 7, despite persistent cost pressures. The company raised its full-year 2025 cost inflation estimate to low-to-mid single digits and now projects its gross margin to be flat, a revision from previous guidance. Its adjusted gross profit margin declined by 120 basis points in Q3, primarily due to higher commodity costs, new and existing tariffs, and capacity support expenses. McCormick's current gross tariff costs for 2025 are now expected to be approximately $70 million, an increase from the $50 million previously provided, with total gross annualized tariff exposure rising to approximately $140 million. Consequently, the company narrowed its adjusted EPS guidance to $3.00-$3.05 for fiscal 2025, citing increased tariffs and commodity costs as the primary drivers.

Deteriorating Consumer Sentiment Signals Caution

Adding to corporate challenges, consumer sentiment has deteriorated. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's September 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed increased pessimism regarding both future inflation and labor market stability. Median inflation expectations for the one-year-ahead horizon rose to 3.4% from 3.2%, and for the five-year-ahead horizon, they increased to 3.0% from 2.9%. Concurrently, labor market expectations worsened, with median one-year-ahead earnings growth expectations decreasing to 2.4%, the lowest reading since April 2021. The mean probability of job loss rose to 14.9%, exceeding the trailing 12-month average, while household spending growth expectations declined. This combined outlook signals a cautious consumer, potentially curbing future demand for both discretionary and essential goods.

Outlook: Potential for Rate Cuts Amid Lingering Challenges

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts in Q3 2025 could serve as a potential catalyst, easing financial pressure on households and potentially stimulating consumer spending. Lower borrowing costs might broaden the market rally, with investors rotating from richly valued technology names into more attractively priced cyclical sectors. However, the underlying challenges of persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical trade tensions—which contribute to tariff burdens and commodity price volatility—suggest that a sustained recovery for the consumer sector will depend on more than just monetary policy adjustments. Companies will likely continue to implement mitigation strategies such as alternative sourcing and supply chain efficiencies to navigate the unpredictable economic environment.