A sweeping immigration crackdown has failed to deliver its promised wage boom for American workers, with economic data showing little impact after more than a year.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of U.S. Labor Department data shows that former President Trump’s immigration crackdown has produced little evidence of widespread labor market disruptions or meaningful wage benefits for American workers. In fact, wage growth has slowed in the very blue-collar industries that rely most on lower-skilled migrants, challenging a central premise of the administration's economic policy.
"If turning off the immigration spigot was going to meaningfully boost wages or spark labor shortages, it should be jumping out at us in the data by now," Wendy Edelberg, an economist at the Brookings Institution, said. "The effects aren’t there."
The analysis found that across 41 industries most reliant on low-skilled immigrants, hourly earnings rose by a weighted average of 3.5% in the year ended February, lagging the 3.8% increase for all private-sector workers. Meanwhile, unemployment for U.S.-born workers edged up to 4.3% in March from 4.2% a year earlier, and median weekly earnings growth for this group slowed to a four-year low of 3.9% in 2025.
Economists suggest the muted impact stems from the simultaneous rollout of global tariffs, which increased business uncertainty, and the fact that removing immigrants also removes consumers from the economy. Michael Feroli, JPMorgan’s chief U.S. economist, noted that an economy that absorbed millions of immigrants post-pandemic is proving similarly able to adjust to a sharp decline in their numbers, partly through rising productivity.
The White House has pushed back on the analysis, pointing to different metrics as proof of success. "Real wages are finally growing and more Americans are coming off the sidelines to participate in America’s economic resurgence," White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement, highlighting strong labor-force participation among prime-age workers and wage gains after inflation.
The administration has pointed to wage growth in construction (4.0%) and trucking (3.9%) as positive examples. However, the Journal's analysis shows other immigrant-heavy sectors like food manufacturing (3.5%), food services (3.4%), and building services (1.6%) saw slower wage growth.
Some economists argue the administration's stance is based on the "lump-of-labor fallacy," the mistaken idea that there is a fixed number of jobs to go around.
"The idea that if you remove some workers, there’s more jobs for everyone else, that doesn’t work," said Stan Veuger, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. "You’re removing demand as well as supply," because newcomers also buy goods and services, he said.
The continued availability of labor has been a relief for some businesses. Scott Salmirs, CEO of facilities-service firm ABM Industries, said in a March conference call that his company has not had problems finding workers for roles like janitors and maintenance staff, a stark contrast to his expectations a year ago.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
