Solana's 40% rally strengthens case for $140 year-end target

SOL rose 40% in August to $106.49, its best month since 2024's post-election cycle, as on-chain data and ETF inflows back a $140 year-end target.

Prediction markets price a greater than 50 percent probability of SOL reaching $140 by year-end, according to AMBCrypto. The network processed an average of 2,100 transactions per second in August, up threefold from January, while Solana DEXs settled $3.15 billion in volume on Friday alone, representing over 40 percent of total DEX trading across blockchains.

Solana ETFs posted their best weekly inflows of 2026, with more than $150 million flowing in during the final week of August. Daily active addresses reached 5 million, placing Solana ahead of several other major chains. The $SOL/$ETH ratio is up over 7 percent during the rally, though still down more than 10 percent on a quarterly basis as Ethereum's 55 percent surge outpaces Solana's 40 percent jump.

SOL has flipped the $97 resistance into support and now faces a sell wall at $108-$110. A sustained break above $120 would strengthen the case for the $139-$140 region highlighted by the Solana Rainbow Chart, with momentum projections suggesting a move toward $145-$150 if the current expansion pattern repeats.

On-chain metrics and institutional flows back the rally

The network's daily active addresses reached 5 million, according to Solana's official account, while DEX activity continues to expand. On Friday, $3.15 billion worth of transactions settled on Solana DEXs, representing over 40 percent of total DEX trading volume across blockchains. The network is processing an average of 2,100 transactions per second, up threefold from January. Solana's market capitalization climbed to roughly $62.17 billion with nearly $6.85 billion in trading volume.

Institutional flows have also accelerated. Solana ETFs posted their best weekly inflows of 2026, with over $150 million flowing in during the final week of August. This convergence of network activity, DEX volume, and ETF inflows points to the rally being driven by on-chain demand and institutional participation rather than speculation alone.

Technical levels: $120 first, then $139-$140

SOL has moved decisively above the $97 level that previously acted as resistance. After breaking through the zone, price returned to test it as support before bouncing back above $100, giving bulls a cleaner technical base for another continuation attempt.

The next major target sits around $120, according to analyst Quinten Francois, whose chart shows little major structural resistance between the current range and roughly $119-$120. As long as $97 remains intact on pullbacks, the breakout structure continues to favor higher prices.

The Solana Rainbow Chart places SOL near the upper end of its "Fair Value" band at $90.75, with the next band labeled "Getting Spicy" positioned near $139.29. That makes the $139-$140 region particularly interesting if the current recovery continues. Momentum projections suggest that if the breakout above $105 produces another move similar to the previous 40 percent expansion, SOL could approach $145-$150.

Order-book data shows a new sell wall forming around the $108-$110 range, which could explain why price has struggled to extend immediately after touching a 24-hour high near $110.17. Several buy walls sit below price, including liquidity around the $100-$102 region and deeper support further down.

The most important area now sits between roughly $97 and $105. Holding this zone would preserve the breakout, keep the recent higher-low structure intact, and give buyers another opportunity to target $110 before moving toward $120. A sustained break above $120 would strengthen the case for $139-$150, while continued network growth could provide additional support for a broader recovery.

On the other hand, losing $97 would be the first meaningful sign that momentum is fading and could expose the mid-$90s or lower support areas again. The immediate test is whether buyers can absorb the fresh supply around $108-$110 and turn the current rally into a move toward $120 and eventually the larger $140-$150 target area.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.