Putin says Russia-Ukraine war nearing end after 4 years

President Vladimir Putin said the Russia-Ukraine conflict is approaching its conclusion, according to a RIA Novosti report on May 29, even as Russian forces launched offensives across the entire front line and intensified missile strikes on the Ukrainian capital.

"From the battlefield situation of the special military operation, there is reason to believe the conflict is nearing its end," Putin said in remarks carried by the state news agency. The Russian president cautioned that no exact timeline can be set due to ongoing hostilities, adding that strikes on the Kyiv region were retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on the Luhansk region.

The statement followed Russia's largest aerial assault on Kyiv this year — 600 drones and 90 missiles on the night of May 23-24 — which killed at least two people and damaged residential buildings, schools and water infrastructure. Moscow has warned of "consistent and systematic" strikes on the capital and urged foreign diplomats to leave, a demand rejected by Ukraine's allies. Russian forces have deployed the new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in recent barrages, while Ukraine has expanded long-range drone attacks on Russian energy facilities and arms factories, striking targets near Moscow and in its suburbs.

A credible path toward de-escalation would carry significant implications for global markets. Brent crude has carried a conflict premium estimated at $5 to $8 per barrel since early 2024, according to analysts, while European benchmark natural gas prices remain elevated as the war disrupted pipeline flows from Russia. Defense stocks across NATO members have rallied 20 percent to 40 percent over the past year, with Rheinmetall and BAE Systems reaching record valuations on sustained military spending commitments.

Battlefield dynamics tell a more complex story

Despite Putin's assertion of progress, Russia's territorial gains have slowed sharply in recent months. After a series of advances last year, Moscow's forces have ground to a near halt along the more than 1,000-kilometer front line, and Ukraine has launched successful counterstrikes, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The battlefield gridlock undermines Putin's declared goal of capturing the eastern Donetsk region still under Ukrainian control.

The war is also taking a toll on Russia's domestic economy. The initial boost from massive military spending has petered out, creating what the International Institute for Strategic Studies describes as "a dual economy of overheated military output and civilian stagnation." The government has raised taxes and increased domestic borrowing to contain the budget deficit. Opinion polls recorded a dip in Putin's approval ratings in early spring, though state-controlled pollsters reported a slight recovery in May after changing their methodology.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has significantly expanded its deep-strike capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attacks on Russian soil are "significantly changing the situation — and, more broadly, the world's perception of Russia's war." The strikes have forced Russian lawmakers to approve legislation requiring banks to install drone-jamming systems at their own expense.

China's role complicates any resolution

Beijing's position remains a critical variable. The joint declaration signed by Xi Jinping and Putin in Beijing days before the latest escalation reaffirmed strategic coordination between the two countries, with pledges to deepen military trust, expand joint exercises and strengthen cooperation across energy, finance and transport infrastructure. The document refers to the conflict as the "Ukraine crisis" — language that avoids naming Russia as the aggressor — and calls for addressing the war's "root causes," a formulation that aligns with Moscow's narrative.

China's continued economic engagement provides Russia with a cushion against Western sanctions. Bilateral trade, local currency settlement and energy cooperation have expanded, helping Moscow sustain its war effort despite restrictions. For markets, this means any peace process would require not just U.S.-Europe coordination but also China's willingness to use its leverage — something Beijing has so far declined to do.

The last time Putin signaled openness to negotiations was in mid-2024, when he outlined conditions that included Ukraine's withdrawal from four partially occupied regions. Kyiv rejected those terms. Since then, the conflict has entered its most destructive phase, with both sides escalating strikes on civilian infrastructure and energy assets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.