Nasdaq futures gain 0.25% as oil climbs on Hormuz risk

US stock futures ticked higher Monday as oil prices climbed on fading hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening, with investors turning to this week's US inflation data.

Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.25% to about 29,896, while S&P 500 futures added 0.13% to roughly 7,785.75 and Dow Jones futures slipped 50 points to near 54,102.

"Iran said talks with Oman were approaching an agreement but denied holding direct negotiations with the US, despite Washington's claims that a deal was close," according to Trading Economics, keeping oil and inflation risks in focus.

The mixed pre-market action follows a strong week on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 rose 3.4% to 7,757.64, the Nasdaq Composite gained 4.9% to 26,690.62 and the Dow advanced 2.42% to 54,036.93. The S&P 500 touched an all-time high of 7,793.68 before Friday's jobs report, while the Dow reached 54,744.33 and the Nasdaq sits near its record of 27,190.21. Brent crude traded at $83.64 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78.08.

The week ahead carries two inflation readings that will shape the Federal Reserve's path, with the consumer price index and producer price index scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday. July's nonfarm payrolls rose by just 23,000, well below expectations, with unemployment at 4.1%, fueling expectations the Fed may refrain from raising rates. The odds of a September hike have fallen to 44% from 67% before the jobs report.

Inflation Data to Test Fed's Hold

The US 10-year Treasury yield dipped about one basis point, while the dollar index hovered near 99.6 after a sharp decline in the previous session. Gold and silver were lower.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq's outperformance last week points to continued leadership in growth and technology names, with the index adding 1,237.95 points. The S&P 500's 252.86-point gain and the Dow's 1,277.87-point advance reflect broad participation, though the pullback from session highs suggests some profit-taking after the rally.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil supply, making any disruption a direct threat to energy prices and, by extension, consumer inflation. Iran's denial of direct talks with Washington, despite US claims a deal was close, leaves the reopening timeline uncertain and keeps a geopolitical premium embedded in crude.

A hotter-than-expected CPI or PPI print would revive rate-hike bets and pressure equities, while soft data would reinforce the case for the Fed to hold. With oil near $84 a barrel on Hormuz risk, energy costs add another variable to the inflation calculus, and any escalation in the Gulf could push crude higher and weigh on equity valuations. Polymarket traders put a 62% probability on the S&P 500 opening higher Monday, reflecting the modestly positive futures tone.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.