Khamenei set to speak as US-Iran strikes kill 46, oil surges 3%

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is set to issue a formal statement on national issues as US airstrikes have killed at least 46 people and wounded more than 400 since hostilities resumed, pushing Brent crude up 3% on Friday and on track for a third consecutive weekly gain.

"The collapse of the interim deal has removed the only framework that kept oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, and each new round of strikes makes a diplomatic restart harder," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen.

The US military expanded its strikes to bridges and power stations in southern Iran, hitting at least five bridges in Hormozgan province and collapsing a tower used by the Revolutionary Guard for maritime surveillance. Iran retaliated by striking a water desalination plant and power generation station in Kuwait, causing fires and disrupting electricity units. Global share prices fell, with Wall Street opening sharply lower, as benchmark Brent crude climbed past recent highs.

The Strait of Hormuz carried a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas before the war, and its effective closure has already disrupted energy supplies to Gulf states dependent on desalination plants for fresh water. With the US restoring its blockade on Iranian ports and Trump threatening to seize strategic islands, the risk of a ground escalation — and a sustained oil price spike — is rising.

The Ceasefire's Collapse

The preliminary agreement signed in late June called for the Strait of Hormuz to be fully reopened, but it contained language suggesting Iran would manage traffic and potentially charge fees. Tehran seized on that provision, arguing it has the right to control the waterway, while the US insisted the strait should remain open and toll-free as it was before the war. The dispute triggered a chain of hostilities: an Iranian drone struck a cargo ship on June 25, the US responded with strikes on missile and radar sites, and within two weeks both sides had crossed each other's red lines.

The last time the US and Iran reached a similar impasse — during the 2019 tanker attacks and the killing of Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 — Brent crude spiked above $70 before settling lower as diplomatic channels remained open. This time, no backchannel has produced results. Iran has broadened its retaliatory strikes to include Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan, while the US has revoked a waiver allowing Iran to sell oil on international markets for US dollars.

Human and Economic Toll

At least 16 seafarers, mostly Indian nationals, have been killed since the war began, and India has barred its citizens from working in the Strait of Hormuz. Over 20,000 workers of all nationalities are based in the region, with 6,000 stranded on vessels, according to the International Maritime Organization. The International Transport Workers Federation said it has received over 3,000 requests for help from stranded crews, many without food, fuel for air conditioning in summer heat, or medical care.

The economic damage extends beyond oil. Iraq signed 48 deals with US companies during the prime minister's visit to Washington, including a plan to rebuild the long-defunct Iraq-Syria crude oil pipeline that could bypass the Strait of Hormuz entirely. But that project would take years to complete, offering no relief for the current crisis.

What Comes Next

Khamenei's statement — the first since his funeral in early July drew crowds calling for revenge against President Donald Trump — could signal whether Iran is prepared to negotiate or intends to escalate further. The US has struck targets in northern Iran far from the strait, and Trump has threatened to target civilian infrastructure, a red line that, if crossed, would mark a significant escalation.

For markets, the key variable is whether the conflict remains contained to the Gulf or draws in broader regional powers. Brent crude's 3% gain on Friday reflected the uncertainty, with options skew and defense sector stocks also moving higher. If Khamenei's statement signals a hardening of Iran's position, the risk premium embedded in oil prices could widen further.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.