Key Takeaways: Israel faces a narrowing window to shape Syria's trajectory as al-Sharaa's pragmatism collides with a 3-nation Sunni bloc backed by Turkey.
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Israel's Syria Dilemma Deepens as 3-Nation Sunni Pact Forms
Israel's Syria calculus has shifted since Assad's December 2024 fall, as al-Sharaa's pragmatic overtures collide with a 3-nation Sunni pact signed August 7.
"It is important to avoid a fixed, binary view of 'either war or peace' — this is a ruler showing some degree of change, and a security arrangement may be possible," said Dr. Carmit Valensi, a Syria expert at Tel Aviv University's Institute for National Security Studies.
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, signed August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, formalizes a conservative Sunni bloc intended as a strategic counterweight to both Israel and Iran. Turkey is building a 200,000-strong new Syrian army staffed by Sunni Islamist commanders, while al-Sharaa reached a memorandum of understanding with Russia to maintain a reduced military presence at Hmeimim airbase and Tartus naval base. Israel seized a security zone near the Golan Heights immediately after Assad's fall, and Washington has barred further attacks on Syrian government facilities since al-Sharaa's regime targeted Druze in southern Syria last year.
The stakes are substantial: Israel's security zone in southern Syria faces mounting U.S. pressure for withdrawal, while the 1974 Agreement on Disengagement — the framework for any new security arrangement — remains deadlocked. If Israel withdraws hastily, Turkey could establish a presence on its northern border; if it stays, it risks alienating the international community and the Druze population it has pledged to protect.
The 3-Nation Mecca Pact
Al-Sharaa, the former commander of al Qaeda's Syrian affiliate who seized Damascus in December 2024, has signaled openness to a security agreement with Israel. In a recent Al Jazeera interview, he expressed support for an arrangement that could serve as a gateway to full peace — but not at the expense of Damascus's claim to the Golan Heights, a position rooted in his family's displacement from the area in 1967.
The Mecca pact's core is the bilateral relationship between Turkey and Pakistan, which have deepened defense ties over the past decade — including a $1.5 billion deal in 2018 for four MILGEM-class naval ships. Qatar and Syria are also components of the bloc, with Turkey and Qatar serving as the new Syrian regime's main allies.
Dr. Reda Mansour, a researcher and former Israeli diplomat, warned that "the al-Sharaa regime is jihadist and, at best, will become Islamist." He noted that Europe wants millions of refugees returned to Syria, Gulf states plan to lead reconstruction, and Turkey sees Syria as central to the Sunni axis it wants to lead. "Israel can aspire at most to a security agreement, under the cover of which al-Sharaa could build a modern and powerful army," Mansour said.
Security Zone Deadlock
The U.S. brokered a July 2026 understanding involving Syria, Israel, and the International Atomic Energy Agency to secure and remove nuclear material from a clandestine site linked to Assad's nuclear program, most of which was destroyed in an Israeli strike in 2007. The episode demonstrated that where interests converge, the two countries can address concrete security threats through U.S.-mediated, verifiable arrangements.
A recent Channel 11 report claimed an unnamed Middle East country advised another to sign an agreement with Israel and then violate it after building strength. While the report did not name the countries, Middle Eastern strategic logic suggests Syria was the advised party and Turkey or Qatar the advisor. The report has fueled calls in Israel to avoid any arrangement with al-Sharaa.
The last time Israel faced a similar strategic ambiguity was in the lead-up to the 1979 Egypt-Israel peace treaty, when President Anwar Sadat's overtures were met with deep skepticism in Jerusalem. That agreement has held for more than four decades, but the current situation differs: al-Sharaa's regime has religious characteristics that Assad's secular Baathist government lacked.
Trump has praised al-Sharaa and is working to remove Syria from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. Washington barred further Israeli attacks on Syrian government facilities last year in response to al-Sharaa's regime targeting Druze in the south. The U.S. president is also pressing al-Sharaa to invade Lebanon and confront Hezbollah — a request the Syrian leader has declined.
Beyond the diplomatic calculus, the uncertainty carries market implications. Israeli defense stocks have priced in continued confrontation along the northern front, while any security arrangement with Damascus would reset that risk premium. Regional oil markets remain sensitive to developments in Syria, given the country's position along key transit routes and its role in the broader Iran-Israel confrontation.
Israel must decide whether to pursue a security arrangement with al-Sharaa or maintain its current posture of holding territory and avoiding diplomatic engagement. Or Horvitz, a retired lieutenant colonel in Israeli Defense Intelligence, argues in a Wall Street Journal op-ed for cautious engagement following Reagan's approach to Gorbachev: "Trust but verify."
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] The New Syria: The Enemy of Israel's Enemy - WSJ[2] Why Syria under al-Sharaa is a growing strategic dilemma for Israel - Ynetnews[3] Saudi-led Sunni bloc emerges in the Middle East, posing challenges for Israel[4] The new crescent: Mecca pact gives rise to a Saudi-led Sunni bloc, posing new challenges for Israel[5] ‘They need each other’: What’s behind the new Syria-Russia accord?
