Iran's missile attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has shattered a six-week lull in maritime hostilities, pushing Brent crude above $95 a barrel and exposing the fragility of the US-Iran interim peace agreement.
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Iran strikes ships in Strait of Hormuz, sending oil above $95
Iran's missile attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz has shattered a six-week lull in maritime hostilities, pushing Brent crude above $95 a barrel and exposing the fragility of the US-Iran interim peace agreement.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps fired missiles at commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, according to US officials, marking the first confirmed attack since late May and sending oil prices sharply higher. Brent crude rose as much as 3.8 percent to $95.47 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed 4.1 percent to $89.82, as traders priced in renewed disruption to a waterway that carries about 20 percent of the world's seaborne oil.
"The attack confirms that Iran retains the ability and willingness to weaponize the strait regardless of the MoU," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen. "Each incident erodes confidence in the ceasefire and forces shippers to recalculate the risk premium on every barrel passing through the chokepoint."
The strike targeted vessels attempting to use an alternative transit route along Oman's territorial waters, according to the Institute for the Study of War. At least eight commercial ships reversed course between July 2 and July 3 after approaching the Omani corridor, with some later resuming passage through Iran's designated traffic separation scheme — a pattern consistent with Iranian threats or attacks. Iran attacked a vessel using the International Maritime Organization-Oman route on June 25, and previously closed the strait entirely on June 20 to pressure the US into restraining Israeli operations against Hezbollah.
The strait as leverage
Senior Iranian officials have framed control of the Strait of Hormuz as the regime's primary source of leverage against the United States. Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi warned on July 4 that Iran could use both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al Mandeb as bargaining chips if Washington violated the memorandum of understanding. Iranian Parliamentarian Malek Shariati similarly emphasized the strait's importance to global energy markets on July 3.
The attack comes as the regime faces internal divisions over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's position on the US-Iran MoU. Supreme Leader Representative to the IRGC Abdollah Haji Sadeghi issued a letter on July 4 directing IRGC and Basij commanders to treat Mojtaba's June 18 statement — in which he authorized the MoU while noting he had "a different opinion in principle" — as the regime's final basis for action. The directive follows public splits among Assembly of Experts members and parliamentarians, with at least 84 lawmakers endorsing a statement warning negotiators not to violate Mojtaba's red lines.
The Iranian regime has also reshuffled senior military positions after the US-Israel-Iran war. Rear Admiral Ali Ozmaei, whom the US Treasury sanctioned in June 2019 for facilitating "destabilizing and provocative" actions around the strait, has replaced Rear Admiral Alireza Tangsiri as IRGC Navy commander. Tangsiri was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Bandar Abbas on March 26.
What's at stake for markets
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day, making it the world's most critical energy chokepoint. The last time Iran attempted sustained disruption — during the 2019 tanker attacks following the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign — crude prices spiked 15 percent over six weeks while shipping insurance rates for Gulf transit tripled.
The July 7 attack threatens to reignite that risk premium. Options markets are already pricing elevated tail risk: Brent implied volatility rose 4.2 points to 38.6 on the day, while the cost of one-month out-of-the-money put protection on crude futures jumped to its highest since the June 20 closure. Defense and energy stocks outperformed in US pre-market trading, with the S&P 500 energy sector gaining 1.8 percent as investors rotated into inflation-hedged assets.
The sustainability of the US-Iran MoU now hinges on whether both sides can contain the escalation. Iran's internal factional dynamics — particularly the tension between hardliners who view the MoU as a concession and pragmatists who see economic relief as essential — suggest the risk of further attacks remains elevated. For traders, the key question is whether the July 7 strike represents a calibrated signal or the start of a broader campaign to reassert Iranian control over the waterway.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Oil prices rise after report of Iranian attack on commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz[2] Iran Update Special Report, July 4, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War[3] Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fire missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports[4] Iran resumes attacks in Strait of Hormuz after lull, US officials say[5] Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fires missiles at ships near Hormuz
