ASML eyes 20-unit Samsung order ahead of Q1 earnings

ASML heads into its April 15 earnings report with investors focused on a potential 20-unit order for its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems from Samsung, a deal that could be worth over €4 billion and provide crucial demand visibility for the semiconductor equipment sector.

The reported order for Samsung’s P5 foundry is the “most important news” for the stock, analysts at JPMorgan said in a recent note, highlighting the market’s need for forward-looking signals after ASML stopped disclosing its order book data.

Beyond the Samsung deal, SK Hynix is also reportedly spending around $8 billion on EUV equipment. For the first quarter, JPMorgan forecasts ASML revenue of €85.21 billion and a gross margin of 52.0 percent, slightly below the consensus revenue estimate of €86.96 billion.

The key issue for investors is whether strong demand from foundries can translate into a guidance upgrade. UBS projects ASML’s year-end order backlog could reach between €45 billion and €50 billion, significantly above the market consensus of €39.6 billion, suggesting current valuations may not reflect the full long-term earnings power.

Q1 Estimates Signal Steady Quarter

Wall Street expects a seasonally softer quarter for ASML, though bank estimates vary. JPMorgan projects first-quarter revenue will fall 12.3 percent sequentially to €85.21 billion, landing near the midpoint of ASML’s own guidance. UBS is more optimistic, forecasting revenue of €87.12 billion. Both firms see gross margins holding at 52.0 percent.

While analyst estimates are largely in line with company guidance, the original report notes that buy-side investors hold a more bullish view, anticipating that both revenue and margins will reach the high end of the guided range. For its full 2026 fiscal year, ASML has guided for revenue growth between 4 percent and 19 percent, while the current Bloomberg consensus sits at a more optimistic 15.3 percent.

Five Catalysts Drive Long-Term Outlook

Looking past the current quarter, UBS identified five potential events in the next 12 months that could drive ASML’s stock higher. The first is the April 22 TSMC Technology Symposium, where the world’s largest foundry may confirm its adoption of next-generation High-NA EUV systems for its A14 process node.

Further catalysts include capital expenditure outlooks from major cloud computing firms in the summer and ASML’s own qualitative forecast for 2027 in October. The final major event will be in January 2027, when ASML is expected to resume disclosing its order backlog. UBS believes this figure could be as high as €50 billion, providing a substantial boost to revenue visibility and potentially leading to significant upward revisions in analyst estimates.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.