ASML boosts 2026 sales forecast by €2B on unrelenting AI demand

ASML raised its full-year sales forecast, signaling that the global build-out of artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to drive insatiable demand for its advanced chipmaking equipment.

ASML Holding NV, the sole manufacturer of extreme ultraviolet lithography machines essential for producing advanced AI chips, boosted its full-year 2026 sales guidance after reporting first-quarter profits that surpassed analyst estimates, citing accelerating demand from its key customers.

"Chip demand currently exceeds supply, and customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond," Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink said in a statement.

The Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company reported first-quarter net profit of €2.76 billion on sales of €8.77 billion, beating consensus estimates of €2.56 billion and €8.69 billion, respectively. However, it projects second-quarter sales with a midpoint of €8.7 billion, slightly below the €9.07 billion analysts anticipated, suggesting some order lumpiness.

The upgraded forecast underscores the intense capital spending cycle fueled by AI, directly benefiting ASML and its primary customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. With the world's AI compute capacity growing more than threefold every year since 2022, according to a recent Stanford University report, ASML's monopoly on EUV technology solidifies its critical position in the supply chain for tech giants like Nvidia and Apple.

AI Demand Outstrips Supply

ASML's outlook is a critical barometer for the semiconductor industry, and the upward revision to its full-year sales forecast—to a range of €36 billion to €40 billion from a prior €34 billion to €39 billion—confirms the AI investment boom remains in full force. The company noted that "order intake remains very strong" as clients rush to build out capacity.

This trend is mirrored by its largest customer, TSMC, which is also experiencing demand that outstrips its current production capabilities for the 3-nanometer chips used in AI accelerators. TSMC, a key supplier to Nvidia, recently posted a 35 percent year-on-year rise in its own first-quarter revenue, signaling the intense downstream pull for advanced manufacturing. The AI investment frenzy has pushed total private investment in the sector to over $581 billion in 2025, more than double the previous year, per Stanford's AI Index.

Guidance Tempers Enthusiasm

Despite the strong annual forecast, ASML's weaker-than-expected second-quarter guidance introduced a note of caution. The projected sales range of €8.4 billion to €9.0 billion fell short of the analyst consensus of €9.07 billion. The company's cash and other assets also came in at €8.38 billion, significantly below the €12.93 billion analysts had projected.

This potential short-term softness could reflect the complex timing of multi-billion dollar equipment shipments rather than a fundamental weakening in demand. Still, it highlights the pressure on ASML to execute flawlessly as it navigates a backlog of orders and supports an unprecedented global expansion by its customers, including TSMC's $165 billion investment in new fabs in the United States. For investors, the results confirm the long-term thesis but introduce questions about the near-term pace of growth.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.