Apple's foldable iPhone to capture 29% of panel orders, trailing Samsung

Apple's entry into foldable phones will reshape a market Samsung has dominated for years, with the iPhone Fold expected to account for nearly a third of all foldable display panel orders in its debut year.

Apple will account for 29% of global foldable smartphone panel procurement in 2026, trailing only Samsung at 31% and surpassing Huawei at 24%, according to Counterpoint Research.

"Apple is the key driver as it starts to procure panels for its first foldable iPhone," Guillaume Chansin, director at Counterpoint Research, said. The analyst expects Apple's entry to "reinvigorate the broader market."

Total foldable panel shipments are projected to reach 27.5 million units in 2026, up 24% from 2025, with revenue climbing 48% to about $4.4 billion. The rebound follows a 2025 adjustment period and will be concentrated in the second half, with the third and fourth quarters combined accounting for roughly 64% of annual shipments. Samsung Display, which supplied 22% of foldable panels in the first quarter — up from 15% a year earlier — stands to benefit most as Apple's primary OLED panel supplier.

Apple's first foldable, expected to launch in September alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series, adopts a book-style form factor with a 7.8-inch inner display at a 4:3 aspect ratio — a design choice that confirms larger, productivity-focused screens as the preferred format over Samsung's clamshell Flip. IDC projects the device will capture over 22% of foldable unit share in its first year but account for 34% of total market value, reflecting an expected starting price of about $2,400. JPMorgan forecasts annual sales could reach 45 million units by 2028.

Samsung Display Stands to Win as Panel Volumes Shift

Samsung Display's market share in foldable panels is expected to climb past 50% as it ramps production for Apple's device, cementing its lead in a segment where display engineering remains the primary differentiator. The South Korean supplier already manufactures foldable OLED panels for the iPhone Fold, while rival BOE — which held 45% of the foldable panel market in the first quarter, down from 52% a year earlier — has been excluded from Apple's foldable supply chain after quality concerns. Apple has engineered a reinforced hinge using liquid metal that aims to eliminate the visible crease present on rival devices, and the phone will pair its display with the A20 Pro chip, delivering performance improvements of 15% and 30% greater efficiency than the A19.

A Market Reshaped by Apple's Design Choices

Apple's decision to adopt a book-style foldable rather than a clamshell design has already influenced competitor road maps. Samsung is developing a new device called the "Wide Fold" featuring a 7.6-inch display when open and a 5.4-inch display when closed, with a 4:3 aspect ratio that mirrors Apple's approach rather than Samsung's traditional tall-and-narrow Fold format. The shift shows how thoroughly Apple's design choice has influenced industry expectations even before the product's release. Tri-fold devices like the Huawei Mate XT series and Samsung's Galaxy Z TriFold, meanwhile, are unlikely to become mass-market products soon because of yield challenges and design complexity.

Apple's entry into foldables creates a clear beneficiary in Samsung Display, whose panel shipments will surge as it supplies both Apple and its parent Samsung Electronics. For Apple, the foldable represents a new high-margin revenue stream at a time when iPhone 17 demand is showing signs of softening after a near-record sales run. The Cupertino-based company trades at roughly 30 times forward earnings, and the foldable's $2,400 price point — more than double the average iPhone selling price — could add $10 billion or more in annual revenue by 2028 if JPMorgan's 45-million-unit forecast proves accurate.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.