SBF Praises Trump Crypto Policy; Pardon Odds Sit at 17%

Edgen Crypto·Feb 01 2026, 07:36

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Key Takeaways

Disgraced FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has launched a public praise campaign for U.S. President Donald Trump, fueling speculation that he is angling for a presidential pardon. Through a series of social media posts, Bankman-Fried lauded Trump's crypto policies while criticizing the previous administration, a move that traders on prediction markets are watching closely.

Political Pivot: Bankman-Fried, previously a major political donor, now claims Trump is "right on crypto" while asserting that Joe Biden "bungled crypto" by appointing Gary Gensler.
Pardon Speculation: The comments follow the recent release of former Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and amplify theories that SBF is seeking clemency for his 25-year prison sentence.
Market Odds: Traders on the prediction platform Polymarket have assigned a 17% probability that Trump will pardon Bankman-Fried before 2027.

Bankman-Fried Reverses Political Stance After Ellison's Release

Convicted FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried has initiated a public relations effort praising U.S. President Donald Trump, a sharp reversal from his past political allegiances. In recent posts on the social media platform X, Bankman-Fried stated, "@realdonaldtrump is right on crypto," while simultaneously criticizing former President Joe Biden, who he claims "bungled crypto." He specifically blamed the appointment of Gary Gensler as SEC chair for the previous administration's perceived failures.

These statements surfaced just days after Caroline Ellison, the former CEO of Alameda Research and a key witness in his trial, was released from federal custody after serving 440 days. Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March 2024 for fraud and money laundering, is currently appealing his conviction. His sudden support for Trump is widely interpreted as a strategic maneuver to secure a presidential pardon.

Prediction Markets Price Pardon Chance at 17%

Traders are quantifying the speculation, with odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket assigning a 17% chance that President Trump will pardon Bankman-Fried before 2027. This market reflects investor sentiment on SBF's high-stakes political play as he navigates his legal battle from behind bars. His conviction in November 2023 on seven felony counts stemmed from the catastrophic collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022. Despite his current praise for Trump, Bankman-Fried was once a major political donor to the opposing party, highlighting the dramatic nature of his pivot.