Green Thumb Industries Stock Advances Following $50 Million Share Repurchase Authorization

Green Thumb Industries Authorizes New Share Repurchase Program

Green Thumb Industries Inc. (CNSX:GTII, OTCQX:GTBIF), a prominent national cannabis consumer packaged goods company, announced on September 16, 2025, that its board of directors has authorized a new share repurchase program. The initiative allows for the buyback and cancellation of up to 10,364,640 subordinate voting shares, totaling US$50 million, with the authorization effective until September 22, 2026. This announcement catalyzed a notable market response, with Green Thumb Industries' stock advancing 8.4% following the news.

The latest program follows previous repurchase efforts, under which Green Thumb repurchased approximately 13.5 million shares for $108 million since September 5, 2023. The new buyback is set to commence on September 23, 2025.

Share Buyback Signals Management Confidence and Shareholder Value Focus

The authorization of a substantial share repurchase program by Green Thumb Industries is widely interpreted as a strong signal of management's confidence in the company's long-term prospects and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value. Share buybacks typically reduce the number of outstanding shares, which can boost earnings per share (EPS) and potentially stabilize stock price performance.

Ben Kovler, Green Thumb Founder, Chairman, and CEO, emphasized the strategic intent behind the move:

"We believe buying back our stock at the right price is one of the best ways to create value for shareholders. This authorization gives us the flexibility to act strategically as the right opportunities come along. We remain focused on investing in our brands and strengthening our long-term position in the continuously expanding cannabis market."

In the broader cannabis industry, share repurchases are a relatively uncommon practice due to limited access to capital and the heavy regulatory burdens faced by operators. This makes Green Thumb's consistent engagement in buyback programs a distinctive move, potentially indicating that the company views its stock as undervalued and possesses robust financial health compared to its peers. For context, larger companies like Apple Inc. have aggressively used buybacks, repurchasing $70.6 billion in the last nine months alone, significantly reducing its outstanding shares over a decade.

Broader Market Dynamics and Cannabis Industry Headwinds

The U.S. cannabis market in 2025 continues to be characterized by the dominance of multi-state operators (MSOs) like Green Thumb, Curaleaf Holdings Inc., and Trulieve Cannabis Corp. However, the industry grapples with significant challenges including persistent federal regulatory uncertainty, banking restrictions, and the substantial financial burden imposed by IRS Code Section 280E, which disallows cannabis businesses from deducting normal operating expenses. Near-term headwinds also include pricing compression, increased competition, and consumer softness.

Despite these challenges, Green Thumb Industries reported solid performance for the first quarter of 2025, with total revenue reaching $280 million, a 1.4% increase year-over-year. The company achieved a gross profit of $143.3 million, representing a 51.3% margin, and a net income of $8.3 million, or $0.04 per basic and diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA stood at $85.2 million, or 30.5% of revenue. During the same period, Green Thumb repurchased approximately 160,000 shares for $1 million.

Comparatively, other major MSOs show varying financial health. Curaleaf reported Q2 2025 revenues of $315 million (a decrease of 8% year-over-year) and a net loss of $53.2 million. Trulieve posted Q2 2025 revenue of $302 million with a strong gross margin of 61% and $75 million in free cash flow. Cresco Labs Inc. reported Q2 2025 revenue of $163.6 million, an 11.28% decrease year-over-year, and a net loss of $16.3 million, alongside negative free cash flow. Green Thumb's positive net income stands out amidst a challenging sector.

Rescheduling Prospects Fuel Investor Optimism

A major catalyst for renewed investor optimism in the U.S. cannabis sector is the potential rescheduling of cannabis by the DEA to Schedule III, anticipated in late 2025. Such a move would significantly alleviate the federal tax burden imposed by Section 280E and foster medical research into the plant. An ATB Capital Markets survey conducted in September 2025 indicated that over 96% of institutional investors believe federal rescheduling will occur, particularly under the current presidential term.

Frederico Gomes, Director of Institutional Research and Life Sciences at ATB Capital Markets, highlighted the potential impact:

"It would ease the federal tax burden for companies in the sector and help promote medical research on the plant."

Gomes suggested that ETFs like the AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis ETF (NYSEARCA: MSOS) could ascend above $10, and other cannabis stocks could potentially double in value. ATB Capital Markets specifically noted Green Thumb Industries as possessing "the best balance sheet by far" among U.S. multi-state operators, positioning it favorably for potential market expansion and financial flexibility should rescheduling occur.

Looking Ahead: Regulatory Clarity and Strategic Growth

The future trajectory for Green Thumb Industries and the broader cannabis market remains heavily influenced by regulatory developments, particularly the ongoing discussions around federal rescheduling. Green Thumb has projected substantial growth, forecasting $1.3 billion in revenue and $141.9 million in earnings by 2028, indicating a strong internal outlook despite industry pressures.

The company's strategy to invest in its brands and strengthen its market position, coupled with the flexibility provided by its share repurchase program, positions Green Thumb to capitalize on evolving market conditions. While the immediate boost from the buyback is clear, the long-term success will hinge on navigating competitive landscapes, effectively expanding into newly legalized markets, and ultimately benefiting from potential federal policy reforms that could transform the U.S. cannabis industry landscape.