VanEck flags 8 of 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals as bottom nears

VanEck's capitulation dashboard suggests Bitcoin may be shifting from selloff to accumulation.

Eight of the 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals tracked by VanEck are firing, the asset manager said, suggesting the market may be nearing the end of its correction. Bitcoin closed Aug. 11 at $63,549, roughly unchanged over the previous month and about 49 percent below its all-time high of $126,200 reached in October 2025.

"Bitcoin appears to have experienced capitulation and could now be nearing or entering an accumulation phase," VanEck said in its mid-August Bitcoin ChainCheck report. The firm considers a signal to be firing when readings reach historical extremes, with price drawdown treated separately using a decline of at least 35 percent.

All 12 indicators entered their respective capitulation zones at some point over the past three months. Thirty-day realized volatility fell to 27.2 percent, well below its long-term average of around 80 percent. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have averaged about 11 months from peak to trough, while the current drawdown from the October 2025 peak has entered its 10th month.

Long-term holders have continued moving coins. Bitcoin held for more than one year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, pushing that group below 60 percent of circulating supply for the first time in months.

Historical Returns After Capitulation Clusters Are Mixed

VanEck cautioned that returns following similar capitulation clusters have been mixed. Periods with eight to 12 indicators firing produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below Bitcoin's broader historical baseline, while one-year returns performed better based on a relatively small sample.

Bears Still Dominate the Prediction Markets

The bearish read extends beyond VanEck's dashboard. On Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, the likelihood of Bitcoin crossing $100,000 before November 2026 is priced at just 5 percent, rising to 13 percent by January 2027 — implying an 87 percent chance BTC trades below $100,000 at the start of the new year. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows, a key driver of the 2025 rally, have reversed into net outflows, and BTC remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

Some traders point to historical precedent for a rebound. Bitcoin has staged recoveries of more than 80 percent following major corrections, as seen in both 2019 and 2023, and VanEck's signal cluster suggests accumulation may be underway. Whether that translates into a durable recovery depends on whether ETF outflows reverse and macro conditions stabilize, with Kalshi traders concentrating most 2026 year-end probability in the $55,000 to $70,000 range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.