Trump's Iran deal claim collides with 5-month war reality

Trump said Wednesday that progress is being made on resolving the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, even as the five-month war expands and only 28 percent of Americans approve of his handling of it.

"Negotiations between parties are ongoing, particularly on the Strait of Hormuz and to de-escalate," Tahir Andrabi, foreign ministry spokesman for mediator Pakistan, told reporters in Islamabad.

The war, which began Feb. 28, has killed 18 U.S. service members and wounded nearly 700 more, with more than 50,000 troops still deployed across the Middle East. Brent crude jumped 6.2 percent to $87.14 a barrel Wednesday as fighting resumed after a brief pause, while Saudi Arabia's GDP fell 4.8 percent in the second quarter with oil activities down 24.7 percent.

The stakes extend well beyond the battlefield. Congress faces a $67 billion supplemental funding request, the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 percent of global oil trade normally flows — remains effectively closed, and Republicans worry about midterm fallout as two-thirds of Americans say the war has not been worthwhile, per an AP-NORC poll.

Trump's latest optimism came as Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman delivered a message to the White House that the kingdom wants de-escalation, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed skepticism that diplomacy with Iran would work. The back-to-back meetings highlight the crosscurrents facing the president as he seeks an exit from a conflict that has extended well past his original four-to-five-week prediction.

The war has drawn in nearly every country in the region. This week alone, Saudi Arabia joined U.S. strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, killing at least 20 fighters and six Iranian advisers; drones ignited fires on two natural gas vessels at Egypt's Damietta port; Jordan intercepted Iranian missiles for a second consecutive day; and Kuwait reported a strike that killed one person.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed Thursday it destroyed three F-35 fighter jets at a U.S. base in Jordan — a claim U.S. Central Command rejected, saying "no U.S. aircraft were destroyed or damaged." The IRGC also said it targeted a U.S. air base in Kuwait, though neither U.S. nor Kuwaiti officials confirmed any impact.

Strait of Hormuz remains the flashpoint

The waterway, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil and gas shipments passed in peacetime, has been effectively closed since the war began. Iran has insisted ships cross through a designated route after requesting permission and paying service fees. The U.S. has redirected 24 commercial vessels since restarting its blockade on Iranian ports earlier this month.

The last time the strait faced a sustained closure was during the 1980s Tanker War, when attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf drew in the U.S. Navy and ultimately led to a ceasefire. Today, the economic stakes are higher: Brent crude has swung between $72 and $102 a barrel this month alone on uncertainty over whether a deal can be reached.

Political pressure mounts at home

The Senate on Thursday again rejected a resolution to limit Trump's war powers, failing 49-50. Three Republicans — Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins and Rand Paul — voted in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman voted against. The vote came a week after a similar effort failed.

The Pentagon has largely stopped holding press briefings on the war, with the last one in early May. Lawmakers in both parties say they have struggled to obtain detailed briefings, and the administration has substituted polished battlefield videos for full updates. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who prefers to be called Secretary of War, has not appeared before Congress to explain the strategy beyond a late-July appropriations hearing.

Trump is scheduled to convene his Cabinet Friday at Camp David, perhaps hoping to replicate the retreat's past role in Middle East diplomacy. But with Iran's Revolutionary Guard firmly in control of decision-making and internal jockeying among senior commanders, U.S. officials fear the conflict is likely to drag on.

If a short-term agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz can be reached, oil prices could retreat sharply from current levels and safe-haven assets like gold could lose momentum, while defense stocks face downside pressure. If not, the war risks consuming Trump's presidency — and Republican midterm prospects — as the 2026 elections approach.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.