Strategy faces $2.19 loss per share as Bitcoin weighs on Q2 earnings

Strategy Inc. is expected to report a loss of $2.19 per share when it delivers Q2 earnings after Thursday's close, with Bitcoin's 14% quarterly decline pressuring results.

Barclays initiated coverage of Strategy earlier this month with an Overweight rating and a $130 price target, implying the stock could outperform industry peers. The broader analyst consensus carries a "Buy" rating with a $360 price target, representing potential upside of about 294% from Friday's close of $91.67.

Revenue is estimated at $121.88 million, up 6.4% from the same quarter last year. Short interest in MSTR has risen to $42.80 million, representing 12.70% of total float — a level that signals rising bearish bets. The stock's Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator flashed a "Buy" signal, while the Relative Strength Index hovered just below 40, indicating neutral conditions.

The company holds 843,775 Bitcoin valued at over $55 billion, but the cryptocurrency's 14% slide during the second quarter has left Strategy sitting on paper losses exceeding $8 billion. Michael Saylor's firm halted Bitcoin purchases for a month and sold 3,620 BTC to bolster its cash reserve to $3.225 billion. In a Sunday post on X, Saylor shared a StrategyTracker chart and wrote "We're gonna need another color," fueling speculation about whether he plans to resume buying.

New Metrics for a New Capital Structure

Strategy recently introduced a suite of refined Bitcoin-centric performance indicators that account for its debt obligations and preferred stock. The framework includes "net Bitcoin per share" — calculated by subtracting preferred stock and out-of-the-money convertible debt from total holdings — and an "amplification" ratio of about 1.5x, illustrating the leverage effect from the senior capital stack. The metrics are now live on the company's investor website.

The earnings report will serve as a key test of whether Strategy's Bitcoin-heavy model can withstand sustained price declines. Investors will watch for any update on the company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy and whether Saylor signals a resumption of purchases in the coming weeks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.