Solana slides toward $60 as failed $80 breakout sets up bearish August

Solana slid toward $60 support on Aug. 2 after failing to break above $80, confirming short-term seller dominance and pointing to extended August losses.

The double-top pattern on SOL's daily chart — with peaks near $79 on July 15 and July 22 — projects a measured move of roughly 7 percent toward $67 if the $72-$73 neckline breaks, according to technical analysis published by Blockonomi.

SOL traded at $73.59 on July 31, down 1.14 percent, sitting at the apex of a triangle between the descending trendline from May's peak near $98 and the ascending trendline from the June low at $60.29. The 0.382 Fibonacci at $74.79 rejected every recovery attempt through July, while the 0.5 Fibonacci at $79.27 and the 100-day EMA at $79.39 converge into the same resistance zone.

The $60.29 June low now serves as the last major floor before a potential slide toward lower levels. Morgan Stanley's MSOL spot Solana ETF logged $19.06 million in inflows on its second trading day, the largest single-day inflow across all US SOL ETF products since mid-May, while KSNET signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation to bring Solana Pay to 330,000 Korean merchants.

The double-top pattern formed on lighter exchange flows than the spring version — from roughly 0.2 million SOL in mid-July to about 0.9 million by July 22 — suggesting weaker distribution pressure this time. However, the HODL Waves metric shows the one-to-two-year holder band slipping from 15.7 percent in mid-July to 15.17 percent by July 28, indicating long-term holders are trimming exposure as the pattern forms.

Morgan Stanley launched its spot Solana ETF on July 28, and by its second trading day on July 29 it had driven the largest single-day inflow across all US SOL ETF products since early May. MSOL pulled $19.06 million that session while every other SOL ETF product recorded zero. The fund carries a 0.14 percent management fee and passes 95 percent of staking rewards directly to shareholders. Cumulative SOL ETF inflows now stand at $1.15 billion with total net assets at $878.33 million.

KSNET, which has run Korea's payment infrastructure for 26 years and processes roughly $4 billion in monthly transaction volume across 330,000 merchants, signed an MOU with the Solana Foundation on July 30 to integrate Solana Pay across two tracks: domestic payments with digital asset settlement connected to the Korean won network, and AI-driven payments where autonomous agents initiate and settle transactions on-chain. The AI payment track, known as x402, aligns with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan's view that autonomous agent payments will be a defining trend of the next cycle.

August has historically been mixed for SOL. The median is effectively flat at -0.001 percent, but the average sits at +61.1 percent, the highest of any month in SOL's calendar — entirely carried by 2020's +213.6 percent and 2021's +199.8 percent. Strip those outliers and August looks more like Bitcoin's worst month than its best.

The weekly forecast for August 1-8 sees SOL ranging between $70 and $82 as the triangle resolves, with the post-recess direction and KSNET proof-of-concept timeline shaping the August 9-20 window at $68-$85. The final week of August could see $67-$90 as September FOMC pricing builds. A daily close below the $72-$73 neckline would confirm the double-top breakdown and open the path toward $67, while a close above $81 and ideally $84 would invalidate the near-term pattern and reopen the higher range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.