Cardano slides 1.5% as Grayscale exits ADA ETF, $0.17 next

Cardano fell 1.5% to $0.194 on Tuesday after Grayscale withdrew its ADA ETF registration from the SEC, removing a potential institutional route for the token as it struggles to reclaim $0.20.

Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst with more than 200,000 followers on X, laid out the bearish case in a six-part thread on Tuesday, flagging three warning signals on Cardano's daily chart.

Grayscale submitted a Form RW filing on Aug. 7 requesting withdrawal of the S-1 registration for its proposed Grayscale Cardano Trust ETF, saying it no longer intended to proceed with the planned distribution of shares. The registration never became effective and no securities were issued or sold. The asset manager, which oversees $45 billion in assets, filed identical withdrawals for its Hedera and Polkadot ETF registrations within minutes.

A confirmed daily close below $0.166 support could bring $0.17 and then $0.152 into play, while reclaiming $0.20 would open a path toward $0.22, according to technical levels tracked by KuCoin.

Grayscale's withdrawal was voluntary, not an SEC rejection

The SEC did not reject the Cardano ETF. Grayscale voluntarily withdrew the filing without providing a specific commercial or regulatory reason, leaving room for the firm to resubmit if market conditions improve. The exchange-level proposals had already been pulled months earlier — NYSE Arca withdrew the Cardano listing proposal on Sept. 29, 2025, and Nasdaq withdrew the Polkadot and Hedera proposals on Nov. 3, 2025.

The withdrawal removes one of several early-stage altcoin filings. Grayscale still has registration statements pending for Bittensor, Aave, BNB, Near Protocol and Zcash ETFs, making the Cardano decision selective rather than a broad retreat.

Technicals point lower as ADA fails at $0.20

ADA closed near $0.1936 after again failing to establish itself above $0.20, a level that has repeatedly capped advances in July and August. The Average Directional Index stood at 24.72, indicating a trend may be developing, while the positive directional indicator at 27.14 remained above the negative reading of 13.89, suggesting buyers still hold a directional edge.

Capital flows paint a weaker picture. The Chaikin Money Flow fell to -0.06, showing selling pressure has recently outweighed accumulation. Volume Profile data places the largest concentration of trading activity between $0.16 and $0.20.

Regulated CME ADA futures completed six months of trading on Aug. 9, but participation remains thin — only five contracts traded on Aug. 7, with open interest unchanged at 207 contracts.

Cardano's underlying development continues despite the ETF setback. The Van Rossem hard fork activated on July 18, introducing improvements to Plutus performance, cryptographic functionality and stake-pool security, and was the first protocol change ratified entirely through Cardano's on-chain governance system.

The withdrawal removes a potential institutional route rather than changing ADA's underlying technical structure. With the token down more than 41% year-to-date and DOT and HBAR down 54% and 35% respectively, the broader altcoin complex faces similar pressure as asset managers grow more selective about which products to pursue.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.