Bitcoin tops $65,000 as Polymarket Fed hold odds hit 93%

Bitcoin rose above $65,000 on July 20, as Polymarket prediction markets priced a 93% probability the Federal Reserve holds rates steady at its July meeting.

"Markets are pricing near-certainty of a July hold after recent inflation data came in softer than expected," Nina Volkov, crypto macro analyst at Edgen, said. "That's providing a tailwind for risk assets including bitcoin."

Bitcoin traded at $65,491 as of 14:30 UTC, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. Trading volume reached $28.4 billion over the same period, above the seven-day average of $22.1 billion. The move pushed bitcoin's market cap to $1.29 trillion and its dominance rate to 54.7%. Polymarket's "Fed to hold rates in July" contract traded at 93 cents, implying a 93% probability of no change at the Federal Open Market Committee's July 28-29 meeting.

The next resistance level sits at $68,000, a zone that has capped upside since mid-June, with support at $62,000 if the rally stalls. The Fed's July decision and any shift in forward guidance will determine whether bitcoin can sustain its move above $65,000 or retrace toward the lower end of its recent range.

The rally extended beyond bitcoin. Ether gained 2.9% to $1,922.33, while VIRTUAL and UNI also held gains as altcoin trading volumes picked up. The broader crypto market capitalization rose 1.8% to $2.36 trillion, CoinGecko data shows.

The Polymarket contract, which has drawn $4.2 million in total volume since launching in January, reflects a sharp shift from early June when traders assigned a 35% probability to a rate cut. The repricing follows the June consumer price index report, which showed headline inflation cooling to 2.9%, below the 3.1% consensus estimate.

Bitcoin's breakout above $65,000 comes as U.S. equities showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,443.28, down 0.19%, suggesting the crypto move was driven by crypto-specific catalysts rather than a broad risk-on rotation in traditional markets.

Open interest across bitcoin futures rose 3.2% to $37.8 billion, while the weighted funding rate on major exchanges stood at 0.008%, neutral territory that suggests the rally has room to run without triggering a long squeeze, Coinglass data shows.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.