Bitcoin slips below $77,000 as Trump's Iran warning triggers crypto selloff

Bitcoin fell 1.92% to $77,160.31 as of 01:08 UTC after Trump warned Iran of further consequences following fresh US strikes near Hormuz.

"If history repeats, we could see a few more failed breakout attempts, followed by a pullback toward the mid-range near $70,000, before a decisive breakout," Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency analyst and trader, said.

The retreat swept the broader market. Ethereum slipped 2.61% to $2,407.83, XRP lost 3.29% to $1.33, Solana dropped 3.59% to $99.62 and Dogecoin fell 2.38% to $0.08114, with global crypto market capitalization contracting 1.86% to $2.60 trillion. Long liquidations topped $250 million across exchanges in the 24 hours through 01:00 UTC, per Coinglass, while Bitcoin open interest fell 2.84%. Crypto-linked equities followed, with Strategy Inc. down 6.06% and Bitmine Immersion Technologies off 7.70%.

Pressure Shifts From Acute to Chronic

The US military launched a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for what Trump called a "failed attempt at adding sea mines" to the waterway. The escalation extended losses in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.79% to 52,766.88 and the Nasdaq Composite off 1.03% to 26,099.77.

Martinez argues Bitcoin is mirroring its 2023 bottoming pattern, with repeated tests of a descending channel's upper trendline before a breakout. CryptoQuant, however, cautions that on-chain structure looks weaker than the price rally suggests, with holders consistently realizing profits and the Net Realized Profit and Loss indicator posting two major spikes last month. "Pressure hasn't cleared, just shifted from acute to chronic," CryptoQuant said, adding that price direction hinges on whether fading spot demand or persistent realized profit breaks first.

Spot and ETF demand has so far kept Bitcoin afloat at the $77,100 support, absorbing whale selling despite a more hawkish Fed backdrop. A decisive break above the channel's upper trendline would open a run toward prior highs, while a failed attempt risks a retest of the $70,000 mid-range Martinez flagged. Binance smart-money sentiment has turned "extremely bullish," and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still reads "Greed," leaving positioning stretched against the geopolitical backdrop.

For traders, the setup hinges on whether the Iran escalation proves a transient shock or a sustained risk-off driver. A resolution that lets spot demand reassert itself would favor the 2023-style breakout scenario; further escalation would likely push Bitcoin toward the $70,000 mid-range before any decisive move.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.