Bitcoin risks drop below $60,000 after double-top fails at $66,921

Bitcoin fell 2.7% to $63,400 as of 14:30 UTC on July 29 after a failed rally to $66,921 formed a double-top pattern, exposing the market to a breakdown below $60,000.

Traders on Myriad, a prediction market, are placing 65.7% odds on Bitcoin reaching $55,000 before $84,000, according to platform data — a near reversal from March when the split was nearly opposite before the Federal Reserve turned hawkish.

The failed breakout triggered more than $670 million in crypto liquidations over 24 hours, with $533 million from long positions, per Coinglass data. The Relative Strength Index sits at 46.5, below the neutral 50 threshold, while the 50-day exponential moving average remains below the 200-day EMA — a death cross formation that has been active for months. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator has been loading for nine bars, and squeezes typically resolve in the direction of the prior trend, which remains bearish.

The next session will determine whether the double top confirms or fails. A daily close below $60,000 would open the path toward $55,000, the level where Myriad traders see the highest probability. The Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision, due later on July 29, could provide the macro catalyst that resolves the pattern. Markets expect a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%, but Chair Kevin Warsh's June press conference — which sent rate hike odds to 70% and pushed 2-year Treasury yields up 16 basis points — has traders deleveraging rather than holding through the event.

Failed Rally Triggered $533 Million in Long Liquidations

The move to $66,921 briefly generated optimism that the 200-day EMA had held as support. But price reversed sharply, losing all gains from the prior week within 48 hours. The current resistance line runs parallel to the two previous bearish trendlines that marked the declines from November 2025 to April 2026 and from May to July 2026, according to chart analysis.

The broader daily chart stretching back to September 2025 shows price trading well below both the Ichimoku cloud and the 200-day moving average for months. Occasional green weeks appear, get sold into, and the slide resumes.

Macro Headwinds Compound Technical Weakness

South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 8% at the open on July 29, triggering a circuit breaker and sending a risk-off shockwave through global markets. Oil fell 2%, gold dipped 1%, and Nasdaq futures turned red. Crypto took the worst of it, with Ethereum down 4.2% to $1,875 and Solana falling 4.4% to $73, per CoinGecko data.

The bull case rests on a dramatically dovish Fed surprise — Warsh signaling patience rather than hikes — or a revival of the Senate's Clarity Act providing regulatory tailwind. Both outcomes require events outside the chart to rescue a setup that, on its own, leans bearish.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.