Bitcoin's recovery hinges on a daily close above the 50-day EMA at $64,650, backed by $381.6 million in ETF inflows and Hormuz deal hopes.
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Bitcoin nears $64,650 breakout as ETF inflows hit $381.6M
Bitcoin traded near $64,100 on Wednesday, testing the 50-day EMA at $64,650, as $381.6 million in ETF inflows and Hormuz deal hopes lifted risk appetite.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could reach an agreement with Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday or Wednesday, a move that would ease energy supply concerns and support risk assets.
Spot BTC ETFs recorded $211.50 million in net inflows on Tuesday following $170.09 million on Monday, according to CoinGlass data. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a 58.9 percent probability of a September rate increase, down from 64.7 percent on Tuesday. OPEC+ agreed Sunday to raise oil production from September, pushing crude to its lowest level since July 13.
A daily close above $64,650 would flip the short-term bias and open the path toward the 100-day EMA at $67,079, then the 200-day EMA at $72,649. Failure to hold $64,004 support would turn the recovery into a sell-the-rip move.
ETF inflows and macro tailwinds
The two-day inflow streak marks a shift after weeks of mixed demand for US-listed spot Bitcoin products. Combined flows of $381.58 million across Monday and Tuesday suggest institutional buyers are returning as geopolitical risk premium unwinds.
Bessent told CNBC that hundreds of ships are waiting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and that reopening the waterway would push energy prices lower. "I'd expect the energy prices to settle back down, which will be good for the entire world," he said. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are approaching a 60-day interim arrangement, with US officials targeting a Wednesday announcement.
Lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure and weaken the case for further Fed tightening. The drop in September hike odds from 64.7 percent to 58.9 percent has weighed on the US dollar, providing additional support for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Traders seeking dollar downside exposure have turned to instruments like the Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP) to position for a weaker greenback.
Technical levels to watch
Bitcoin retains a mildly bearish bias while trading below the 100-day EMA at $67,079 and the 200-day EMA at $72,649. The RSI sits near 53 on the 4-hour chart, indicating balanced momentum, while the MACD remains below the zero line — suggesting underlying bearish pressure has not fully faded.
A sustained daily close above $64,650 would weaken the short-term bearish outlook. On the downside, the horizontal support at $64,004 is the first line of defense; losing that level would expose Bitcoin to renewed selling pressure below its recent range.
The recovery's durability depends on whether ETF inflows persist through the week and whether the Hormuz deal materializes as Bessent expects. Both factors would need to hold for Bitcoin to build momentum toward the $67,079 level.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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