Bitcoin holds $64,000 support as markets brace for FOMC decision

Bitcoin traders face a pivotal week as the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting looms over a market already grappling with a resurgent dollar.

Bitcoin traded at $64,000 on July 29, holding above a key support zone as investors adopted a cautious stance before the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

"The market is pricing in a roughly 36% chance of a rate hike at this meeting, which would be a significant headwind for risk assets," said Nina Volkov, crypto macro analyst at Edgen.

The US dollar index climbed above 100 for the first time in over a year, reaching its highest level since May 2025, according to TradingView data. A strong dollar historically correlates with downward pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets. The May Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Thursday and could reinforce the case for tighter policy if it shows price pressures persisting.

A hawkish surprise from the Fed could break the $64,000 support level, potentially driving Bitcoin toward the $60,000 zone that on-chain analytics platform Glassnode identified as a "durable bottom" in late June. A dovish outcome or signs of cooling inflation could fuel a rally above recent resistance levels.

Dollar Strength Returns as Headwind

The US dollar index's move above 100 marks a reversal from the weakness that characterized much of 2025. Trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on X that if DXY holds above 100 while supported by its 200-day moving averages, it would "put some pressure on risk assets." Analyst Benjamin Cowen described an ongoing "bull case" for the dollar into the latter half of 2026.

The DXY's rally comes as the US-Iran peace deal, signed earlier this year, shows signs of strain. The agreement had initially driven oil prices lower — US WTI crude fell to $73 per barrel, nearly 40% below its local peak — which provided a tailwind for Bitcoin. That dynamic is now reversing as geopolitical uncertainty creeps back into the equation.

Short-Term Sellers Dump $5B, Whales Stay Put

On-chain data reveals the June correction hit newer investors hardest. Short-term holders — wallets holding coins for up to six months — sent more than 80,000 BTC to Binance over a seven-day period in June, representing approximately $5 billion in selling pressure, according to CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost.

Yet large-volume investors have shown little urgency to exit. CryptoQuant analyst CryptoZeno noted that the gap between long-term and short-term whale profitability "highlights a market transitioning through consolidation rather than capitulation." Long-term whales continue to hold positions despite reduced gains, while short-term whales remain largely neutral.

Glassnode said in a late-June analysis that accumulation trends were helping support $60,000 as a local bottom, describing "decent" buying-up of supply at the lows. "I believe there's a chance that this may be a durable bottom, at least to a certain extent," the firm concluded.

The FOMC outcome on July 29 will likely determine Bitcoin's trajectory for the remainder of the summer. A rate hike — or even hawkish language that keeps the door open for one — could accelerate the selloff among short-term holders and test the $60,000 floor. A pause, combined with PCE data showing inflation moderating, could reignite the momentum that pushed Bitcoin above $70,000 in May.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.