US Administration Scrutiny on Chinese Pharma R&D Raises Market Concerns
The Trump administration is reportedly considering an executive order to restrict US pharmaceutical companies' reliance on experimental drug development in China, sparking significant investor and industry concerns over potential disruptions and increased costs within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors.
US Administration Scrutiny on Chinese Pharma R&D Raises Market Concerns
The Trump administration is reportedly considering an executive order aimed at restricting US pharmaceutical companies' engagement with experimental drug development in China. This move has introduced significant uncertainty within the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, given the substantial investments and increasing reliance on Chinese innovation for global drug pipelines.
The Event in Detail
Reports from September 10, 2025, indicate that the Trump administration is drafting an executive order to impose strict restrictions on Chinese pharmaceuticals, particularly experimental drugs. This initiative aims to curb China's growing biotech industry but has raised concerns about its potential negative impact on the US pharmaceutical supply chain and patient access to innovative treatments. The draft order includes provisions for stricter scrutiny on US pharmaceutical companies' deals to purchase drug rights from Chinese firms, mandating a "mandatory review" by a US national security committee. Furthermore, it proposes measures to discourage the use of clinical trial data generated from patients in China, calling for more rigorous reviews from the FDA and higher regulatory fees.
This potential policy shift targets a substantial and rapidly expanding segment of the pharmaceutical market. In the first half of 2025 alone, roughly one-third of global pharmaceutical licensing spending, or $52 billion, involved Chinese drugs. This represents a significant increase from previous years, with China accounting for 21% of licensing spending in both 2023 and 2024, up from single digits prior. Major pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Eli Lilly, and GSK, have collectively pledged approximately $150 billion to license novel treatments from China over the last five years. These deals often involve billions of dollars to secure exclusive development and sales rights for candidate drugs in overseas markets, illustrating the deep integration of Chinese innovation into global pharmaceutical pipelines.
Analysis of Market Reaction
The prospect of increased US scrutiny on Chinese pharmaceuticals immediately impacted market sentiment, leading to heightened volatility. Shares of Chinese biotech companies listed in the US, such as BeiGene, Zai Lab, and Legendary Biotech, experienced initial stock price declines. Similarly, major pharmaceutical companies with significant ties to Chinese partnerships, including Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and GlaxoSmithKline, saw their stock prices fall. For instance, BeiGene saw an intraday stock price drop of 12% on September 10, although it later narrowed and rebounded by 6.93% on September 11. This suggests that while initial reactions were driven by panic, investors began to assess the policy's potential impact more objectively. Reflecting this nuanced view, US Capital Group increased its holdings of BeiGene (06160.HK), raising its shareholding ratio from 4.96% to 5.02%.
The market's reaction stems from concerns over potential disruptions to research and development pipelines, increased operational costs, and the broader implications for drug availability. Multinational pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, Merck, and AstraZeneca, are actively opposing the proposed crackdown, underscoring their reliance on Chinese biotech firms for assets and efficient delivery capabilities.
Broader Context & Implications
This proposed executive order emerges amidst existing US-China trade tensions that have already impacted the pharmaceutical sector. In 2025, the US introduced a 10% tariff on all imported goods, with steeper levies of up to 245% on Chinese active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) and 25% on medical devices from Canada and Mexico. Given that Chinese APIs are used in approximately 40% of US generic drugs, these tariffs are expected to significantly raise the price of these crucial components, potentially leading to increased production costs for US companies and possible shortages of generic drugs. In retaliation, China has imposed 125% tariffs on US pharmaceutical exports, a significant blow to US pharma companies given China's substantial share of the global pharmaceutical market.
Despite these geopolitical headwinds, China has rapidly evolved from an API contract manufacturer to a significant source of global innovative drugs. This "transfer of pharmaceutical power" is driven by China's R&D efficiency, cost advantages, and supportive policy environment. It is estimated that by 2040, drugs developed in China could generate approximately $220 billion in revenue outside of China, accounting for 35% of the total amount approved by the US FDA. This trend is particularly attractive to multinational pharmaceutical companies facing an urgent need to replenish their innovative pipelines due to looming "patent cliffs" for blockbuster drugs, some with annual sales exceeding $10 billion, between 2025 and 2030. Chinese biotech assets offer a more cost-effective solution, with upfront payments approximately 60% to 70% smaller and total deal sizes 40% to 50% less compared to global peers.
Specific examples underscore this trend. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate that AstraZeneca alone signed licensing deals worth over $13.6 billion with five Chinese companies in the first half of 2025, including a $5.2 billion agreement with CSPC PHARMA. Pfizer also made a significant deal with 3SBIO for cancer drugs, valued at up to $6 billion. Jefferies reports that in H1 2025, China accounted for 18% of the global total number of licensing agreements with multinational pharmaceutical companies and one-third of the transaction amount.
Expert Commentary
> "A single regulatory decree cannot hinder industry trends; many institutions remain optimistic about the development of innovative pharmaceuticals," notes a report, reflecting a perspective that the underlying drivers of collaboration, such as R&D efficiency and the pressing need for new treatments, will persist.
Analysts at Jefferies highlight the strategic shift where Chinese biotechs are offering affordable remedies to alleviate pressure on multinational corporations, particularly in key therapeutic areas like oncology, autoimmune diseases, and cardiovascular conditions. The increasing volume of business-development deals, almost doubling from 65 in 2020 to 125 last year, further illustrates the growing interdependence.
Looking Ahead
The proposed executive order introduces considerable uncertainty for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors. In the short term, increased lobbying efforts by major pharmaceutical companies are anticipated as they seek to influence the final scope and implementation of any new regulations. Longer-term implications could include a rerouting of R&D investments, a potential increase in drug development costs for US companies if they reduce reliance on cost-effective Chinese partners, and possible supply chain disruptions. The situation is also likely to intensify US-China trade tensions within the healthcare sector. Investors will be closely monitoring further announcements from the Trump administration and the responses from both US and Chinese pharmaceutical companies to discern the ultimate impact on global drug development and market dynamics.
