Key Takeaways:
America's largest cities are losing children at six times the national rate, reshaping their tax bases and public finances.
The number of children under 18 living in big US cities fell 6% from 2015 to 2024, a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data shows, driven by falling birthrates, soaring housing costs and pandemic-era remote work that enabled families to leave. The decline among children under 5 was even steeper at 15%, more than double the 7% national drop.
"Families had more exit options and they took them," said Connor O'Brien, a fellow at the Institute for Progress, a think tank focused on economic growth and innovation.
San Jose, California, posted the sharpest decline among large cities, with children under 5 falling 34%. Albuquerque, New Mexico, saw a 15% drop in children under 18 — about half from families moving out and half from a 20% decline in local births over the decade. Nationwide, births fell 9% over the past decade, while birthrates in large urban counties dropped 18% between 2010 and 2024, the biggest decline of any county type, O'Brien's analysis found.
The shift threatens city tax bases and public school funding. Families are important contributors to municipal revenue, and middle-class households drive demand for goods and services that benefit all residents. With enrollment declining, the El Paso Independent School District is closing elementary schools to save money. Of the 38 US cities with more than 500,000 residents, about two-thirds saw child populations shrink.
Cost of Living Pushes Families Out
In New York, the number of children fell 8% over the past decade. Since 2000, the city has lost a net 80,000 households with married couples or children under 18 while gaining 670,000 households of single people or families without kids, said Melissa Pumphrey, chief economist of the city's Economic Development Corporation. Parents need to earn $334,000 to comfortably afford childcare for a 2-year-old, according to an analysis from the city's comptroller. The median rent for apartments with three or more bedrooms is $5,495 citywide, StreetEasy data shows.
Raheim Bazile paid $750 a month for a room in Queens while working as a truck driver for the US Postal Service before moving with his wife to Easton, Pennsylvania, last year. Their son was born earlier this year. "Here, I feel much lighter," he said.
In San Jose, where median household income is nearly double the US average, Ernie and Samantha Solis could not afford to buy a home on their salaries as a firefighter and teacher. Daycare cost about $25,000 a year per child. In June 2021, they moved to Star, Idaho. Ernie now commutes back to San Jose weekly, staying in free firefighter dorms. The family had a third child after moving.
Birthrate Decline Compounds the Loss
In Denver, the 9% drop in children reflects families moving out combined with 7,000 fewer births over the decade than if totals had held steady. In Albuquerque, births in Bernalillo County fell 20% over the past decade.
Even in more affordable cities, the financial calculus of parenthood is shifting. In Philadelphia, where the child population fell 6%, Nija Rivera, 39, runs a grant-writing consulting firm and lives with her husband in a two-bedroom condo she owns. Having a child would mean sacrificing the time and money she spends on daily hot yoga, dance classes and acting lessons. "I love taking classes and learning new things," she said. "I didn't get the chance to do all that stuff as a kid."
The long-term risk is that declining child populations accelerate a broader erosion of city tax bases. The 13 large cities that bucked the trend — mostly affordable Sunbelt markets such as Fort Worth, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida — saw child populations rise 7% while overall population grew 12%. But for the 17 cities where overall population grew while children declined, the demographic shift signals a structural change in who lives in urban America: more childless adults, fewer families.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
