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コンテンツ
要約
プロジェクトの基本
プロトコルと依存関係
チームと実行
市場の物語と社会的影響
市場センチメント分析
オンチェーン採用
供給と需要のダイナミクス
供給とインフレ
需要と価値の蓄積
テクニカル分析（2025年9月17日現在）
評価シナリオ（6～12ヶ月）
評価シナリオの確率
投資テーゼと主要な指標
投資テーゼの概要
監視すべき主要な指標

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Mantle 2025年第2四半期レビュー：垂直統合された金融エコシステム

· Mar 31 2026
Mantle 2025年第2四半期レビュー：垂直統合された金融エコシステム

Mantleは、レイヤー2ネットワーク、リキッドステーキング、トークン化された資産を含む相乗的な製品群を通じて、伝統金融と分散型金融を融合することを目指す先駆的なオンチェーンエコシステムです。

要約

  • 強力なファンダメンタルズ：Mantleは、BitDAOから継承した数十億ドル規模の財務、PolygonとBybit出身の経験豊富なチーム、そして垂直統合された製品スイートによって際立っています。
  • 強力な「CeDeFi」フライホイール：Bybit取引所との深く戦略的な統合は、取引手数料割引やローンチパッドアクセスなどのユーティリティ機能を通じて、MNTトークンに対する大幅な構造的需要を生み出します。
  • 重大なインフレリスク：主要なリスクは、MNTの総供給量の約47.8%がまだ流通していない大規模な財務保有です。将来の配布は、潜在的な売り圧力の持続的な源となります。
  • 堅調なオンチェーンの勢い：このエコシステムは強力な採用を示しており、ロックされた合計価値（TVL）は5億5400万ドルを超える水準を維持し、日次アクティブユーザー数の高さを記録しています。
  • プレミアム評価：Mantleの時価総額対TVL比率は、競合他社と比較してプレミアムで取引されていることを示しており、市場の高い期待を示唆しています。

プロジェクトの基本

Mantleは、伝統金融（TradFi）と分散型金融（DeFi）を橋渡しするオンチェーンエコシステムです。その核となるミッションは、ガバナンス、ステーキング、イノベーションのための$MNTトークンによって推進されています。エコシステムには以下が含まれます。

  • Mantle Network：EVM互換のレイヤー2スケーリングソリューション。
  • mETHプロトコル：ETHネイティブのリキッドステーキングプロトコル。
  • Function (FBTC)：Bitcoinの流動性をエコシステムに取り込むための製品。
  • Mantle Index Four (MI4)：機関投資家向けインデックスファンド。

プロトコルと依存関係

Mantleは、実行にはOP Stack、データ可用性にはEigenLayerのEigenDAを使用するモジュラー型ブロックチェーンアーキテクチャを採用しています。この設計によりコストは90%以上削減されますが、ネットワークの健全性とセキュリティに関してEigenLayerプロトコルへの重要な外部依存性が生じます。

チームと実行

Mantleは、Web3、機関金融、取引所運営における深い専門知識を持つチームによって率いられています。

名前

役割

経歴

Brian Trunzo

最高成長責任者

元Polygon Labsグローバル事業開発責任者

Joshua Cheong

プロダクト責任者

元Parity Technologies (Polkadot), Citi

Jordi Alexander

チーフアルケミスト

Selini Capital創設者

Helen Liu

アドバイザー

Bybit共同CEO

市場の物語と社会的影響

Mantleは、主要な市場の物語、すなわちモジュール性、リキッドステーキング（LST）、実世界資産（RWA）、そしてBybitとの深い統合による「BNB 2.0」取引所トークンモデルとよく一致しています。社会感情は圧倒的にポジティブです。

市場センチメント分析

オンチェーン採用

Mantleは、非常に強力な初期の牽引力と市場採用を示しています。

  • ロックされた合計価値（TVL）：5億5400万ドル以上を維持。
  • 日次アクティブアドレス数：83,000以上まで急増した後、健全な5,000～11,000ユーザーに落ち着きました。
  • 保有者の行動：流通供給量における高いステーキング比率は、保有者の強い確信を示しています。

供給と需要のダイナミクス

供給とインフレ

MNTの最大供給量は約62.2億トークンに固定されています。最も重要な要因は、約29.7億MNT（総供給量の47.8%）を保有するMantle財務です。将来のトークンリリースは、このDAOによって管理される財務から行われ、予測可能なインフレスケジュールではなく、イベント駆動型の供給ショックを引き起こします。

需要と価値の蓄積

MNTの価値は、独自のデュアルフライホイールモデルによって推進されています。

  1. Bybitフライホイール：Bybitは、取引手数料割引などの特典のためにMNTを保有するようユーザーを奨励し、大規模で構造的な需要を生み出しています。
  2. オンチェーンフライホイール：財務はdApp開発に資金を提供し、これによりガス供給としてMNTの需要が増加し、ステーキング報酬が提供されます。

テクニカル分析（2025年9月17日現在）

MNTは強い強気な勢いを示していますが、買われすぎの領域に入っており、注意が必要です。

指標

値

シグナル

価格

$1.71

強い上昇トレンド、$1.77の史上最高値に接近

RSI (14)

74.87

買われすぎ。調整が必要かもしれません。

MACD (12,26,9)

ヒストグラム：0.03827

強気。ポジティブな勢い。

ボリンジャーバンド

アッパーバンド：$1.81

アッパーバンド付近で取引されており、高いボラティリティを示唆。

評価シナリオ（6～12ヶ月）

Mantleの現在の完全希薄化評価額（FDV）は約106.3億ドルです。

シナリオ

条件

目標FDV範囲

確率

強気シナリオ

強力な実行と好調な市場

$30.0B - $40.0B

30%

ベースシナリオ

強力な実行と不利な市場

$12.0B - $15.0B

40%

弱気シナリオ

弱い実行と好調な市場

$8.0B - $12.0B

20%

破滅シナリオ

弱い実行と不利な市場

$2.0B - $4.0B

10%

評価シナリオの確率

投資テーゼと主要な指標

投資テーゼの概要

Mantleは、巨大な財務、相乗効果のある製品スイート、そしてBybitとの強力な「CeDeFi」フライホイールによって特徴づけられる、魅力的な投資ケースを提示しています。プロジェクトの成功は、今後6～12ヶ月間の実行に大きく左右され、不利な市場でもレジリエンスを発揮します。主要なリスクは、未流通の財務供給からの長期的なインフレ圧力です。

監視すべき主要な指標

  • 「MNT x Bybit 2.0」採用状況：BybitにおけるMNTベースの手数料割引とカード決済の普及状況を監視します。
  • 買い戻し・バーン提案：収益資金による買い戻しメカニズムに関するガバナンス投票の結果は、変革的な触媒となるでしょう。
  • Mantle Banking (UR)指標：グローバルローンチ後のユーザー採用状況とTVLを追跡します。
  • 財務資本配分：財務展開におけるROIを観察します。慎重で高いROI支出は、適切に管理されたエコシステムの物語を強化するでしょう。
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投資、もうひとりじゃない

Ed を無料で試そう。クレカ不要、縛りなし
Edを無料で試す