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## 事件详情 几家软件即服务 (SaaS) 公司的近期业绩数据引发了投资者担忧，凸显了依赖传统增长指标的商业模式中潜在的脆弱性。具体来说，**Asana (ASAN)** 报告的平均账单增长率仅为 9.3%，净收入留存率为 95.7%，表明该公司从现有客户那里获得的收入损失多于其所获得的收入。同样，**Q2 Holdings (QTWO)** 在过去一年中，年度经常性收入 (ARR) 平均增长率为 11.3%，销售增长预测为 10.7%，表明持续放缓。 ## 市场影响 投资者对这些数据的负面反应并非孤立事件，而是市场对软件公司估值方式发生更大转变的症状。传统的 SaaS 策略（通过强劲的 ARR 增长获得高倍数）正受到人工智能经济学的挑战。 A prime example of this is the recent market response to **Oracle's (ORCL)** earnings. The company's stock plunged over 11% despite reporting a massive 438% year-over-year increase in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) to $523 billion, fueled by major AI deals. The sell-off occurred because the company could not convert this demand into recognized revenue quickly enough, missing analyst estimates. This "Deployment Gap" underscores that investors are no longer valuing contract signings alone; they are now pricing in the physical and capital-intensive constraints of building and energizing the necessary data center infrastructure. The market decline also impacted other AI-related stocks, including **英伟达 (NVDA)** and **AMD**，在 Oracle 报告发布后分别下跌了 3% 和 4%。 ## 专家评论 根据咨询公司 **AlixPartners** 的一份报告，在人工智能优先的经济中，ARR 指标正变得越来越“毫无意义”。该公司指出，运行人工智能模型相关的高昂、可变成本使得固定的、按席位计费的订阅模式难以维持。相反，基于使用量和结果的商业模式正在获得 prominence。因此，AlixPartners 认为，投资者正在转向一种混合估值方法，这种方法优先考虑公司将人工智能投资转化为切实的收入和效率提升的能力。 Analysts at Trefis have elaborated on this, describing Oracle's situation as a "Deployment Lag." They note: > “The bottleneck has changed. It is no longer about selling cloud credits; it is now about pouring concrete and securing megawatts... The stock’s 11% drop mirrors investors recalibrating to the notion that Oracle’s growth will depend on how swiftly it can establish new capacity, rather than solely on demand.” This transition also introduces a "Depreciation Drag," as massive capital expenditures on GPU clusters will lead to higher depreciation expenses, creating a headwind for earnings per share (EPS). Investors are now hesitant to assign a high "Software Premium" to a business that increasingly resembles a capital-intensive utility provider. ## 更广阔的背景 Asana、Q2 Holdings 甚至 Oracle 矛盾局面所面临的挑战预示着软件行业正在进行根本性的重新定价。几十年来，该行业一直以近乎即时的可扩展性和高毛利率为特征。人工智能时代引入了投资者现在不得不建模的显著物理世界依赖性。 Valuation frameworks are evolving to capture this new reality. AlixPartners suggests investors are focusing on new metrics, including: * **人工智能杠杆率：** 衡量人工智能投资转化为收入和利润的效率。 * **基于结果的绩效：** 专注于客户生产力提升，例如减少任务完成时间，而不是用户数量。 * **新的预测指标：** 通过“使用时间”和“使用波动性”等指标来衡量客户采用速度和消费稳定性。 最终，市场正在发出一个明确的信息：人工智能时代的价值与已证明的影响和运营执行力息息相关。那些依赖 ARR 等传统指标而未能证明其能够有效部署人工智能能力并从中获利的公司，可能会面临持续的估值压力。
