XRP rallies as ETF inflows flip positive, echoing 2024 setup

XRP rose 4.2% to $0.6234 on July 28 as inflows into XRP-related exchange-traded funds turned positive for the first time in three weeks, reviving comparisons to the token's 2024 rally structure, according to CoinGecko data as of 14:30 UTC.

"The return of positive ETF flows removes a key headwind that had suppressed XRP since early July," said Nina Volkov, a crypto market analyst focused on institutional flows. "The question is whether this can sustain against the macro pressure from this week's FOMC meeting."

XRP-related ETFs recorded net inflows of $28.3 million on July 27, breaking a streak of 18 consecutive trading days of outflows that had totaled $214 million, per data from The Block. The reversal coincided with XRP reclaiming its 50-day exponential moving average near $0.5980, a level it had lost on July 14.

The token's current price structure mirrors the setup that preceded its 2024 rally, when XRP broke above a descending channel near $0.5200 and ran to a local high of $0.7400 within 12 trading sessions. The same channel pattern has re-emerged, with the upper boundary now at $0.6450 and the lower trendline near $0.5450, according to chart data from TradingView.

The broader market remains cautious. Bitcoin fell 3.15% to $63,235 as traders reduced risk before the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, with rate hike odds climbing sharply this month under Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw over $465 million in outflows, weakening institutional confidence across the sector. Ethereum, XRP and Solana all underperformed Bitcoin during the session, with 165,529 traders liquidated for nearly $682 million across centralized exchanges, Coinglass data shows.

The $0.6450 ceiling

XRP's immediate resistance sits at the descending channel's upper boundary near $0.6450, a level that has rejected the token three times since May. A daily close above this threshold would confirm the breakout and open a path toward the $0.7400 target — matching the 2024 rally's peak. Failure to clear $0.6450 risks a retest of the 50-day EMA at $0.5980, with the channel's lower boundary near $0.5450 as the next major support.

The daily relative strength index has climbed to 58, recovering from neutral territory but still below the overbought threshold of 70 that preceded the 2024 rally's exhaustion. Open interest in XRP futures rose 12% to $1.84 billion over the past 24 hours, per Coinglass, suggesting new longs are entering rather than existing positions being covered.

ETF flows as the swing factor

The shift in ETF flows marks a potential turning point for XRP's institutional demand profile. The 18-day outflow streak had coincided with a 23% decline from XRP's July high of $0.8100, as regulatory uncertainty around the CLARITY Act's stalled Senate progress weighed on sentiment. The bill, which would provide a regulatory framework for crypto market structure, remains stuck over ethics provisions with Republicans holding 53 seats and needing seven Democratic votes to clear the threshold.

Prediction markets have cut 2026 passage odds sharply from earlier estimates, according to data from Polymarket. The delay keeps regulatory uncertainty elevated for exchanges and institutional desks awaiting clearer rules, though analysts expect the debate to resurface once lawmakers return from the summer recess.

XRP's ability to sustain its rally depends on whether ETF inflows continue and whether the token can break above the $0.6450 resistance before the Fed's policy decision on July 30. A hawkish surprise could reverse the gains, while a dovish tone would remove a major macro headwind for altcoins.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.