Strategy halts Bitcoin buys for 4 weeks as mNAV drops below parity

Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, has gone four consecutive weeks without buying BTC, its longest purchasing freeze in two years, according to SEC filings covering Jun. 29 through Jul. 20.

"The board and I couldn't agree on the future of the company," Jack Mallers, who stepped down as CEO of Tether-backed Bitcoin treasury firm Twenty One after seven months, said in a post on X. Mallers had publicly challenged Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor over the mNAV metric at BTC Prague earlier this year, questioning whether out-of-the-money securities should be classified as equity.

The buying freeze coincides with a breakdown in Strategy's capital model. The company's mNAV ratio touched approximately 0.99 in late June, the first time it slipped below parity in company history, according to the primary source. Strategy holds $3.225 billion in cash, while MSTR has fallen roughly 33% year-to-date. Q2 earnings are due Thursday after the US market close.

The pause removes a major source of consistent demand from the market. Strategy's accumulation strategy depends on its stock trading at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, allowing it to issue shares and buy more BTC. With mNAV below 1.0, that flywheel has stalled. The question for investors is whether the buying resumes after earnings or whether the math remains broken.

Saylor has continued to post Strategy's color-coded Bitcoin accumulation chart on X, most recently on Jul. 27 with the caption "We're gonna need another color." It was his fifth such post since the last confirmed purchase, according to the primary source. The posts have maintained the public perception that Bitcoin accumulation remains the firm's strategic orientation, even during a period of balance-sheet restructuring.

The freeze has broader implications for the market. Strategy's consistent buying had provided a floor of institutional demand that other corporate treasuries — including Twenty One, which held roughly 43,500 BTC at its December IPO — had begun to follow. With Tether now in full control of the second-largest corporate treasury after buying SoftBank's stake in May, the dynamics of corporate Bitcoin accumulation are shifting.

The mNAV Problem

Strategy's capital model depends on a premium. When mNAV sits above 1.0, the company can issue shares at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, use the proceeds to buy more BTC, and increase Bitcoin per share. That mechanism broke down in late June when mNAV touched parity for the first time. Mallers' critique at BTC Prague highlighted a structural concern: classifying out-of-the-money securities as equity inflates the metric, making the model appear more attractive than it is.

Meanwhile, Strategy's Stretch product — which paid an 11.5% annual yield when Mallers spoke, rising to 12% in July per SEC filings — raises questions about how the company funds its obligations without operating cash flow. "Who's coming up with the money?" Mallers asked during a panel at the conference.

What to Watch

JPMorgan has forecast Bitcoin reaching $170,000 despite the current market slump, though the bank warned about key risks. For Strategy, the immediate focus is Thursday's Q2 earnings report, which will reveal whether the company plans to resume purchases or whether the freeze extends further. If mNAV remains below parity, the buying pause could become structural rather than tactical.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.