SpaceX stock nears $135 IPO price after $850 billion selloff

SpaceX has erased roughly $850 billion in market value since its peak four days after the largest US IPO in history.

SpaceX shares closed at $136.08 on Tuesday, just $1.08 above their $135 IPO price, after three consecutive declines erased roughly a third of the stock's value from its post-listing peak.

"We still think SpaceX hasn't bottomed. There will be a steady stream of stock supply hitting the market in the coming months, and it's unclear whether demand will absorb it," said Ken Mahoney, chief executive officer of Mahoney Asset Management.

The stock has fallen more than 4% in the past three sessions, slipping below its $150 debut price from June 12. At its June 16 peak of about $225, the company commanded a market capitalization of nearly $2.9 trillion. That has since shrunk to roughly $1.83 trillion. The selloff comes as investors reassess a valuation that exceeds 30 times forward sales — among the highest in the Nasdaq 100 Index, which added SpaceX last week under revised eligibility rules that allowed inclusion within a month of going public.

The slide tests investor appetite for the largest IPO in US history and raises the stakes for upcoming milestones. The Federal Aviation Administration has cleared SpaceX for Starship Flight 13 as early as July 16, while insider lockup periods begin expiring after second-quarter earnings in August, potentially flooding the market with additional shares.

Valuation Reality Check

SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up about 33% year over year, but reported a net loss of $4.9 billion as spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure and Starship development weighed on profitability. Starlink remains the primary profit driver, contributing roughly $11.4 billion in revenue and serving more than 10.3 million subscribers as of the first quarter of 2026. Analysts project 2026 revenue of $34 billion to $43 billion, supported by subscriber growth and expanding AI compute contracts.

Despite the selloff, more than 80% of analysts covering the stock rate it a buy, with an average price target of $236.25 — implying more than 70% upside from Tuesday's close. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are among the more than a dozen banks that initiated coverage with buy ratings. The wide gap between analyst targets and market price reflects the uncertainty around how quickly SpaceX can translate its Starlink dominance and Starship ambitions into sustainable profitability.

Lockup Overhang Looms

The approaching expiration of insider share lockups represents the next major test for the stock. Mahoney warned that sustained supply releases could pressure the stock further, particularly if demand remains uncertain. The lockup structure means insider holdings will unlock in batches over several months, creating a persistent overhang that could limit any recovery.

For investors who missed the IPO, the $135 level may present an entry point. Talley Leger, chief market strategist at Wealth Consulting Group, said he sat out the IPO because he anticipated SpaceX would be added to the Nasdaq 100 — his firm holds funds tracking the index. "If the decline continues, I might consider buying some shares because I agree with the company's vision and goals," Leger said.

SpaceX is not alone in its post-IPO struggles. Of the 10 largest US IPOs this year, six now trade below their first-day closing prices, according to Bloomberg data. The weighted average return for 2026 US IPOs excluding SPACs has fallen to 5.3%, roughly half the S&P 500's return over the same period. The performance of SpaceX and South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix — which also completed a record listing within the past month — will be closely watched as bellwethers for the broader IPO market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.