SpaceX falls to $107 low as short volume hits 10-day high

SpaceX fell to an all-time low of $107.01, below its IPO price, as short volume hit a 10-day high before August 4 earnings.

Professor and fund manager Patrick Boyle drew parallels to the dot-com era, when analysts publicly praised companies they privately considered worthless, as SpaceX's $1.77 trillion market capitalization at IPO drew scrutiny.

The stock closed at $112.20 on July 31, down 0.31 percent, after the short volume ratio hit a 10-day high of 69.95. The metric crossed above 71 on July 21 before settling between roughly 65 and 69. SpaceX shares have declined 50 percent from the $225.64 high recorded on June 16, driven by concerns about the company's stretched valuation. The company lost nearly $2 billion in Q1 while accruing less than $5 billion in sales.

Analysts expect SpaceX to report revenue above $6 billion in its first quarterly filing as a public company on August 4, though consensus still calls for a $0.26 loss per share. The revenue growth is largely tied to easily-cancelled compute deals with Anthropic and Alphabet. First insider unlocks are due days after the filing, which could add further selling pressure.

The stock's 50 percent decline from its June 16 high of $225.64 reflects the exceptionally stretched IPO valuation. SpaceX arrived at Nasdaq with a market capitalization of $1.77 trillion despite losing nearly $2 billion in Q1 while generating less than $5 billion in sales.

Elon Musk has speculated revenue could hit $1 trillion by 2030, and the company's S-1 filing identified a nearly $30 trillion total addressable market. The Street high forecast of $800 per share would value SpaceX at $10.5 trillion, roughly 30 percent of U.S. GDP.

Billionaire Bill Ackman called Starlink a "near monopoly" in global satellite internet but said he won't buy the stock, citing valuation concerns.

The August 4 filing is expected to show revenue above $6 billion, though analysts note the growth is largely tied to compute deals with Anthropic and Alphabet that could be cancelled. Wall Street consensus calls for a $0.26 loss per share.

First insider unlocks are due days after the filing, which could add further selling pressure to a stock already trading below its IPO price.

The decline puts SpaceX at its lowest since its Nasdaq debut, testing investor patience with a valuation that implies significant growth. The August 4 filing and subsequent insider unlocks will determine whether the stock can stabilize or face further downside.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.