Silver tests $60 as death cross confirms bearish trend shift

Silver gapped higher to test $60.00 on Monday, up from Friday's close, as falling interest rates supported non-yielding assets despite a bearish death cross.

"The death cross — when the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA — signals a potential trend shift, though falling rates provide a countervailing tailwind," said Chris, a senior analyst at FXEmpire with more than 20 years of trading experience.

Silver's 2025 rally of 123.8% peaked at $64.67 in December before the current pullback. The metal found support near $57.10, with the 50-day EMA at $58.22 and the 100-day EMA at $58.22 acting as near-term resistance. The RSI recovered to 49 from oversold territory, indicating waning selling momentum but limited buyer conviction. COMEX silver stocks have drawn down 12% since the December peak, according to exchange data.

A sustained move above $60.00 would open the path toward resistance at $60.95, the trendline level, with a breakout above $65.98 needed to invalidate the bearish structure. The next catalyst is the US Federal Reserve meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, with futures pricing an 81% probability of a September hike that would pressure non-yielding assets.

The death cross marks a technical inflection point after seven consecutive months of higher highs and higher lows through December 2025. The pattern reflects the tension between near-term selling pressure and a fundamentally supportive backdrop. Silver's 2025 advance of $35.77 ranked among the strongest annual gains on record for the metal.

Industrial demand remains a structural tailwind. The Silver Institute projects a sixth consecutive annual market deficit in 2026, driven by near-record consumption from solar panel manufacturing, electric vehicles, electronics and AI infrastructure. Mine supply remains constrained as silver is largely produced as a byproduct of copper and lead-zinc mining, limiting responsive growth. Physical inventories remain tight across major exchange warehouses.

Institutional forecasts from Bank of America and Metals Focus point to average silver prices in the $55 to $65 range for 2026, with upside toward $70 should investment flows accelerate alongside persistent deficits. Gold-backed ETFs saw a record $89 billion of inflows in 2025, buying about 800 tonnes of the metal, according to ECB data. The European Central Bank kept its deposit rate at 2.25% on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde signaling willingness to raise further if energy-driven inflation persists.

To the downside, the $57.10 level represents immediate support, followed by $56.12 and the December higher monthly low at $56.19. A break below $56.19 would mark the first meaningful trend weakening in months. The 10-week moving average at $52.52 and the prior breakout level near $49.81 sit further below. The $50 level has historically acted as both support and resistance, dating back to the 1970s Hunt brothers episode.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.