Key Takeaways:
Raw sugar futures rose to 17.11 cents a pound, a one-year high, as a strengthening El Niño threatens output across Brazil, India, and Thailand.
The US Climate Prediction Center said the probability of a very strong El Niño in the 2026-27 Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter has exceeded 90 percent, according to Reuters.
Ukraine's national weather forecasting center projects 2026 sugar beet output at 9 million metric tons, down 23 percent from 11.7 million a year earlier. India's monsoon rainfall ran 12 percent below normal as of Aug. 13, while Brazil Center-South June sugar production fell 26.3 percent year-over-year to 3.903 million tons, Unica data show.
White sugar rose 0.9 percent to $511.50 a ton. With India's export ban in place and closing stocks at their lowest in decades, the October crushing season in Brazil and India is the next supply signal.
India, the world's second-largest sugar producer, banned exports in May after 2025-26 output came in near 279 lakh tons against annual consumption of about 285 lakh tons. Ex-factory prices climbed from 4,200 rupees per quintal in early July to more than 4,800 rupees by the second week of August, pushing retail prices to 55-60 rupees a kilogram. The food ministry has accused mills of holding stocks above declared levels and delaying dispatch, threatening legal action under the Sugar Control Order, 2025. Closing stocks for the season ending Sept. 30 are estimated at 30-33 lakh tons, the lowest in decades.
Czarnikow predicts a 2027-28 global sugar deficit of 2.9 million tons, while Green Pool Commodity Specialists raised its 2026-27 deficit estimate to 3.3 million tons from 1.76 million. StoneX lifted its 2026-27 deficit forecast to 1.7 million tons from 550,000. The International Sugar Organization projects 2026-27 global production falling 1.15 percent year-over-year to 180 million tons, citing the potential El Niño impact on harvests in India and Thailand. European Union and UK production is set to decline to 14.98 million tons, the lowest in 11 years, according to S&P Global.
Raw sugar at 17.11 cents a pound sits near the top of its recent range after both New York and London contracts rallied to 1.25-year nearest-futures highs on Wednesday, before pulling back Friday on pre-weekend long liquidation. Cocoa also gained on El Niño expectations, with London futures up 1 percent to 4,197 pounds a ton, while arabica coffee eased 0.7 percent to $3.1760 a pound.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
