Global Payments cuts 2026 forecast as Middle East conflict hits travel

Global Payments cut its 2026 revenue and profit forecasts as the Middle East conflict curbed travel-related card spending, sending shares down about 2.7% in premarket trading.

"The big story this year is that companies haven't stepped away from travel, but they are increasingly more selective and productivity-focused," Suzanne Neufang, chief executive officer of the Global Business Travel Association, said. "While business travel spending continues to grow, the number of trips is rising more slowly."

The Atlanta-based payment technology company now expects normalized constant currency adjusted net revenue growth of about 4% to 5% and adjusted earnings per share between $13.60 and $13.80 for full year 2026. It previously forecast adjusted net revenue growth of approximately 5% and adjusted profit between $13.80 and $14 per share.

The revision reflects how the conflict involving Iran and the broader Middle East, which began in early 2026, disrupted aviation, trade and energy markets, driving longer travel times, different long-haul connection points and higher airfares. Payment processors such as Global Payments, which provides technology and software that lets customers accept card, check and digital payments, are feeling the squeeze as reduced travel spending cuts into transaction volumes and cross-border payments.

The GBTA's 2026 Business Travel Index, released this week, projects global business travel spending will reach a record $1.71 trillion this year, up 7.2%, while trip volume rises just 1.3% to 1.84 billion. Business travel volume in the Middle East is forecast to decline 12.3% in 2026 as regional conflict weighs on activity, while Asia and Europe face increasing pressure from disruptions to air travel and energy markets. The United States remains the largest market at $423 billion, followed by China at $403.7 billion, together representing about 48% of total global spend.

Despite the softer outlook, Global Payments' quarterly net profit attributable to the company rose to $934.31 million, or $3.46 per share, on an adjusted basis in the three months ended June 30, compared with $754.19 million, or $3.10 per share, a year earlier.

Shares of Global Payments, up 14% so far this year, fell about 2.7% in premarket trading following the results. The forecast cut shows how consumer spending levels directly affect the earnings of payment technology companies, a dynamic that could pressure peers including Visa and Mastercard as geopolitical uncertainty persists. Modern payment technologies that help travel and finance teams track spending and measure return on investment are becoming more central to corporate travel programs, Edward Galvin, vice president and head of North America Visa commercial solutions, said, as companies place greater emphasis on the value of every journey.

The pullback in travel spending hits merchant acquirers and cross-border payment networks hardest, while domestic card networks with diversified consumer exposure are better insulated. Global Payments' merchant solutions segment, which processes transactions for hotels, airlines and travel agencies, carries the most direct exposure to the travel cycle.

For investors, the guidance cut shows that travel-dependent payment processors face a slower recovery than the market had priced in, even as the sector's structural shift toward digital and cross-border payments continues. Global Payments' ability to hold adjusted margins near prior-year levels in the June quarter offers some cushion, but the lowered outlook leaves little room for further deterioration in travel demand before year-end.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.