Bitcoin whales snap $3 billion in a week as retail exits rally

Bitcoin's largest holders added 39,154 BTC in seven days while retail wallets sold into the rally.

Bitcoin whale wallets accumulated 39,154 BTC worth $3 billion in seven days, Santiment data shows, while retail investors sold into the rally.

Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency analyst, shared the on-chain data in an X post on August 30, showing whale-held balances climbed from roughly 5.17 million BTC on August 23 to more than 5.21 million BTC by August 28.

The accumulation comes as Bitcoin trades at $78,965, up 1.3 percent on the day and nearly 2 percent on the week, after rallying from under $65,000 to above $81,000 before facing rejection at that level. Wallets holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC recorded an Accumulation Trend Score of -0.982, near maximum distribution, according to Santiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed over $920 million in inflows over the same period, per data cited by CryptoPotato.

The divergence between whale accumulation and retail selling has historically preceded further price gains, but analysts warn the recent surge could be a bear-market relief rally. Bitcoin faces key resistance at $81,500, with support at $74,000 and then $67,000 if the pullback deepens.

Whales absorb retail supply

Large holders, typically defined as wallets controlling 100 or more BTC, added approximately 43,000 BTC over the prior 60 days through mid-August, worth roughly $2.75 billion to $2.9 billion at current prices, CryptoBriefing reported. Cohorts owning more than 10,000 BTC accumulated 46,420 BTC over the same window.

The retail exodus happened during a rally that took Bitcoin from $62,229 to above $81,500, a roughly 31 percent move. Smaller holders watched their portfolios climb and took profits, while whales absorbed the supply. Exchange-held supply has contracted as large investors pull coins off the market at a pace that outstrips what retail is putting back.

Technical picture and analyst warnings

TrendSpider analysis shows Bitcoin testing a key long-term breakout zone on the monthly timeframe. The former resistance area around $60,000 to $70,000, which capped Bitcoin's advance during the 2021 cycle, is now being retested as potential support. Bitcoin continues to trade above a long-term ascending trendline that has supported price action since 2020.

The 14-day RSI stands at 71.41, placing BTC in overbought territory. Bitcoin trades well above its 50-day SMA of $67,032 and 200-day SMA of $69,339, signaling strong medium- and long-term trend support.

Rekt Capital warned that if the latest surge is ultimately a bear-market relief rally, the cryptocurrency could pull back in the following weeks. Crypto Haris described the move from $65,000 to $80,000 in days as a potential bull trap, expecting BTC to decline to $74,000 first, then $67,000, before eventually reaching $90,000.

The Fed's hawkish stance from new Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday added macro uncertainty. Bitcoin's inability to push through the $81,000 resistance and two rejections at that level, alongside the Fed's tone, has analysts split on whether the bear phase is over.

The key variable to watch is whether whale accumulation pace holds or accelerates. A sustained buying trend from large holders, combined with continued retail unwind, would strengthen the case for a move toward and potentially beyond $81,500. A reversal in whale behavior, where large wallets begin distributing alongside retail, would be a very different signal entirely.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.