Deutsche Bank Forecasts Central Banks to Hold Bitcoin and Gold as Reserve Assets by 2030

Executive Summary

Deutsche Bank projects that global central banks will include Bitcoin (BTC) and gold as primary reserve assets by 2030. This outlook is attributed to increasing institutional investment in digital assets and a sustained decline in the U.S. dollar's share of global reserves, which fell from 60% in 2000 to an anticipated 41% by 2025. Analysts suggest Bitcoin could become a new "financial security cornerstone" for central banks, analogous to gold's historical role. Market data indicates strong performance for both assets, with gold prices exceeding $4,000 and Bitcoin approaching its all-time high of $125,000 in 2025. These assets are expected to complement existing reserve strategies rather than entirely displace the U.S. dollar.

The Event in Detail

In a recent report titled "Gold's Reign, Bitcoin's Rise," Deutsche Bank analysts Marion Laboure and Camilla Siazon posited that central banks would likely integrate Bitcoin into their official reserves. Their research highlights Bitcoin's declining volatility, fixed supply limit of 21 million coins, growing liquidity, low correlation to traditional assets, minimal transaction costs, and high portability as factors making it a viable reserve asset. The report draws parallels between Bitcoin's potential role in the 21st century and gold's established function as a safe-haven asset in the 20th century. Current market conditions reflect this growing interest, with Bitcoin reaching highs above $125,000 in 2025 and gold surpassing $4,000 per ounce, having gained 50% in 2025. This momentum follows increased demand from central banks and corporations seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar and traditional assets. Conversely, the World Bank has previously noted that crypto-assets pose challenges for central bank reserves due to inherent volatility, the evolving regulatory landscape, and the priority of safety and liquidity over returns in reserve management.

Market Implications

Deutsche Bank's prediction reinforces expectations for long-term institutional and sovereign demand for Bitcoin. This trend is seen as contributing to the gradual erosion of U.S. dollar dominance through the diversification of global reserve holdings. The broader financial landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, marked by a paradigm shift in institutional capital allocation. Over 90 public companies globally now hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with more than 200 U.S. public companies having formalized digital asset treasury strategies by Q3 2025, collectively holding over $115 billion in cryptocurrencies. Products such as BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) have amassed over $65 billion in assets under management by Q2 2025, serving as a critical vehicle for institutional exposure. Furthermore, the U.S. government's establishment of a national Crypto Strategic Reserve signals growing governmental acceptance of digital assets.

Expert Commentary

Deutsche Bank analysts Laboure and Siazon assert that Bitcoin's market maturation, evidenced by its decreasing volatility, increasing liquidity, and fixed supply, positions it as a suitable candidate for central bank balance sheets. They wrote that "a strategic Bitcoin allocation could emerge as a modern cornerstone of financial security, echoing gold's role in the 20th century." VanEck analysts, including Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research, have projected Bitcoin could achieve a valuation of $644,000 if it captures half of gold's market capitalization post-2028 halving. Joe Consorti from Theya noted that Bitcoin's fair value floor has risen to $1.34 million in correlation with gold's appreciation. However, the World Bank maintains that central banks prioritize assets with minimal risk, and crypto-assets' volatile nature, evolving regulatory environment, and immature market structure currently present significant hurdles for their inclusion as primary foreign reserve instruments, emphasizing that return is secondary to safety and liquidity for reserve management.

Broader Context

The push towards Bitcoin and gold as reserve assets is driven by overarching macroeconomic instability and the necessity for diversified portfolios. Geopolitical risks and U.S. tariff-driven uncertainty are prompting investors, including institutional entities, to seek hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. Surveys indicate that younger demographics increasingly favor Bitcoin for wealth preservation. This strategic pivot by central banks and corporations is unfolding even as traditional equity markets, such as the S&P 500, experience record highs, demonstrating a paradoxical concurrent flow of capital into both growth and perceived "safe-haven" assets like gold and, increasingly, Bitcoin.