Bitcoin supply in loss hits 10.7M ATH as BTC holds $60,000 support

Bitcoin's supply in loss hit a record 10.7 million coins on June 26, on-chain data shows, even as the token held above $60,000 after oil prices slid.

"Bitcoin's supply in loss has climbed to a record 10.7 million coins, indicating a growing share of holders are underwater," said Darkfost, an analyst at CryptoQuant. "Annual realized profits still exceed realized losses, suggesting the market hasn't fully capitulated."

The supply-in-loss metric tracks the number of coins moved on-chain at a price below their last transaction price. The record reading comes as Bitcoin traded near $61,700 on Thursday after falling to about $58,000 on Wednesday, its lowest since October 2024, according to CoinGecko data. The token is down more than 50% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $469 million in net outflows on Wednesday, the fifth straight session of withdrawals, pushing cumulative inflows to $52.8 billion, the lowest since July 2025, per The Block data. About 7,600 BTC worth nearly $479 million moved into Binance, CryptoQuant data shows, adding to available supply.

The question for traders is whether the record supply-in-loss signals a capitulation bottom or more downside ahead. CryptoQuant's Darkfost noted that in prior bear cycles, realized losses typically exceeded realized profits near the peak of capitulation — a condition not yet met. On the macro front, falling oil prices have fueled expectations that cooling inflation could keep the Federal Reserve from hiking rates, providing a potential tailwind for risk assets. The US Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report due June 26 will be the next catalyst.

$1.6 Billion in Long Liquidity at Risk Below $59,000

Derivatives data adds to the caution. Crypto analyst Reflection warned that more than $1.6 billion in long positions are clustered near $58,000, according to CoinGlass data, creating the risk of a liquidation cascade if Bitcoin breaks below that level. "In all my years trading, I've never seen this much long-side liquidity stacked in one single zone," Reflection said.

Total crypto market liquidations reached nearly $984 million on Wednesday, with long positions accounting for more than 80% of the losses, CoinGlass data shows.

Only 46% of Supply in Profit, Matching 2022 Bear Low

Analyst Sykodelic noted that just 46% of Bitcoin's circulating supply remains in profit, matching the level seen during the 2022 bear-market low. Bitcoin reached that threshold after a 52% decline this cycle, compared with a 75% drop in 2022.

On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim $63,000 to weaken the current bearish structure, traders say. Immediate support sits between $59,000 and $59,300, with a break below that range potentially exposing $57,000 and then the two-year low area near $54,000.

Options activity on the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF surged to 1.1 million contracts on June 25, double the 30-day average, with put options outpacing calls by more than 2-to-1, a bet that Wall Street expects further declines.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.